North American Gas and Power mid-2026 round-up: Renewables cliff, Permian pipelines, and the limits of the summer rally

Key finding from this webinar:

Renewable capacity outlook: The One Big Beautiful Bill effect

A rush of solar construction starts ahead of the 4 July safe harbour deadline and an effective freeze on onshore wind permitting by the Department of Defense, resulting in a sharp decline in wind capacity additions through 2030.

Virginia rejoins RGGI: The $3.50/MWh question

The effect on RGGI allowance prices, the estimated $3.50 per megawatt hour uplift to PJM West forward prices, and the broader implications for dispatch costs across the PJM footprint.

PJM market conditions

Record generator outages, transmission constraints in Northern Virginia, and summer spark spread forecasts; with upside risks from ongoing outages at Greenway Roundtable and other key lines, and a scarcity premium baked into the West Hub forecast for the balance of summer.

ERCOT market conditions

The August monthly outlook for resource adequacy, the Batch Zero study process for matching large load growth with available generation capacity through 2032, and the implications for long-dated spark spreads; with seven gigawatts each of battery and solar capacity additions heading into summer.

Champlain Hudson Power Express (Chippy)

Revised flow expectations following commercial service entry, its capacity obligation from 1 July, and the conditions required for it to flow at full capacity.

Energy Aspects' North American Gas price and balance outlook

A Henry Hub summer forecast of $3.27, above-average storage carryout expectations for both 2026 and 2027, and production growth as the dominant driver of loose balances.

Permian basin supply dynamics

New pipeline capacity from Gulf Coast Express, Hugh Brinson, and Blackcomb; persistently negative Waha pricing; and the path towards over 2.5 Bcfd of exit-to-exit production growth by end 2026.

Haynesville and Appalachia production outlooks

Rising private operator rig activity in Haynesville and the role of Transco's Southeast Supply Enhancement in unlocking Appalachian output growth in 2027.

LNG feedgas demand trends

Seasonal maintenance dents at major terminals, Golden Pass Train One's commissioning progress, and the outlook for a significant demand surge in H2 2027 and 2028 from new facilities including Rio Grande, CP2, and Port Arthur.

US gas exports to Mexico

Energia Costa Azul's first LNG production and the expectation of over 8 Bcfd of US pipeline exports to Mexico at peak summer by end 2027.

Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar: