What the report covers: Corn’s release-day move averages 1.46 times the sessions around WASDE since 2010, with soybeans, Chicago wheat and Kansas wheat close behind, all significant at the 1% level. Soy products, sugar and livestock show no reliable WASDE effect and sit within the range random non-release days produce. In corn and soybeans, volatility continues into the session after the release, while wheat reprices faster. Discretionary positioning is most stretched in sugar and livestock, where WASDE matters least. That leaves soybeans and Kansas wheat as the most exposed markets into the release. Grains are the only ags markets where WASDE has historically justified pricing an event premium into options.
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