Our Kayrros inventory data show global crude stocks far below pre-conflict levels, with SPR releases slowing and Chinese buying recovering.
The market is slowly abandoning the binary Hormuz recovery paradigm but has yet to price the unwinding of the coping mechanisms that have softened the disruption’s impact on energy markets. The most significant adjustments have come from China. By cutting crude imports, slashing refinery runs, halting strategic reserve filling, curtailing product exports and pivoting refiners from petrochemicals to transport fuels, Beijing has bought the market precious time as the disruption hits 100 days.
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