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Oil - Perspectives

The unwanted barrel

Perspectives is our flagship weekly publication on oil, providing unparalleled information, analysis and views. This edition was published 27 Jul 2015

Amid broad based negative sentiment around commodities and still hefty inventory levels, the path of least resistance for prices is to head lower. Our view has long been that the supply side will not respond until 2016 and so, it is demand that was holding up prompt crude. Now, with refining margins starting to falter, the demand support for crude is disappearing swiftly. The fall in margins comes despite strong end-user demand, with nearly six straight months of more than 2 mb/d of y/y growth.... Read more

The European natural gas market has settled into a range that has now characterised the last few months, with the prompt reverting back towards a mean around 43.5 p/therm. The range-bound trading comes against a background of some shifting tides on the supply side and some stability on the demand side. The main bullish story in the supply picture comes from the Netherlands and the surprise setting of the H2 15 Groningen cap at 30 bcm, a level well below our own, and market, expectations. While ...
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The oil industry’s response to the collapse in prices has been to cut back Capex significantly. But the vast divergence between deepwater and tight oil production profiles, producer attitudes and payback periods means it is...
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We are publishing this special report to highlight our analysis of Iran’s upstream sector, which first appeared in the June Middle East Quarterly. The Iran nuclear negotiations are currently taking centre stage in global o...
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While global prices continued to add modest value over the month, the reality is that prices into northeast Asia stayed in the 7-8 $/mmbtu range. Even if prices were biased to the top end of that range, they remain depressed ...
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The Middle East Quarterly provides a comprehensive analysis of the region, examining key topics in depth and providing a detailed guide to regional supply, demand, trade flows and downstream capacity across the Middle East an...
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