Grain futures show the strongest response to WASDE releases

November 11, 2026

What the report covers:


  • Corn’s release-day move averages 1.46 times the sessions around WASDE since 2010, with soybeans, Chicago wheat and Kansas wheat close behind, all significant at the 1% level.
  • Soy products, sugar and livestock show no reliable WASDE effect and sit within the range random non-release days produce.
  • In corn and soybeans, volatility continues into the session after the release, while wheat reprices faster.
  • Discretionary positioning is most stretched in sugar and livestock, where WASDE matters least. That leaves soybeans and Kansas wheat as the most exposed markets into the release.
  • Grains are the only ags markets where WASDE has historically justified pricing an event premium into options.
Hormuz reopens, but depleted stocks leave the oil market dangerously exposed.

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