Two-thirds of planned US data-centre capacity has yet to break ground: price what is built

November 9, 2026

  • Of the 129.6 GW of planned capacity we track, 88.3 GW (68%) shows no ground activity.
  • 3.1 GW is expected to reach full capacity in the next six months, and our median prediction is 11.8 GW in the next twelve months.
  • 9.2 GW across 109 buildings runs behind our forecast baseline: 22% of the capacity under way. 50 of 112 active campuses have at least one delayed building.
  • A Texas permit freeze, federal interconnection reform and tighter capital now sit between announcement and energisation, while 12.0 GW of on-site behind the meter generation allows developers to bypass interconnection queues, but not supply chain backlogs.

Load forecasts that price concrete not headlines

Data centres have become the swing factor in US power demand, and markets are already paying for it. Our power research team expects US48 weather-normalised load to increase by 14% from 2026 to the end of the decade, driven predominantly by data-centre demand. PJM's latest capacity auction cleared at its price cap and still fell 6.8 GW short of its reliability target. In ERCOT, requests to connect large loads have reached nearly 500 GW.

Most of that load exists only on paper. Developers announce campuses in gigawatts, file for interconnection and publish target dates that rarely survive permitting, financing and power supply. Two-thirds of the planned capacity we track shows no ground activity. In ERCOT we observe only 5.8 GW of capacity under active construction or in the commissioning phase. Where work has started, more than a fifth of the capacity is running late. Across the US we expect 12.9 GW of new capacity in the next 12 months. Assumptions based on the queue are a forecast of hollow announcements.

Our answer is the ground truth. Kayrros US Data Centre Monitoring, delivered with Energy Aspects, follows US campuses above 50 MW expected online in the next 12 to 48 months from satellite imagery, building by building. It shows what is built, what is late, and what is still on paper, and dates when each building reaches full capacity, independent of developer announcements. Coverage stands at 163 campuses and grows with every release.

Fig 1: Tracked US data-centre capacity by build stage, GW
Tracked US data-centre capacity by build stage, GW

Four headwinds hit an already inflated pipeline

Four forces now widen the gap between what is announced and what gets energised.

  • Backlash has reached the ballot box. Voters in 38 local jurisdictions are weighing at least 41 measures that would delay, prohibit or add conditions to data centres, 21 of them in Ohio (Reuters, 29 Oct). In Sunbury, Ohio, a 25 MW cap could derail a $2bn Amazon development.
  • Regulators are following. On 3 Aug, Abbott ordered an audit of every data centre in ERCOT's queue, and ERCOT delayed its Batch Zero study. On 21 Sep he told TCEQ to issue no data-centre permits until the audit is done which could be in December but likely slides into 2027. At the federal level, FERC issued show-cause orders to six RTOs and ISOs on 18 Jun covering large-load studies, cost allocation, co-location and behind-the-meter generation.
  • Capital is tightening. Hyperscalers are expected to invest about $800bn this year and more than $1tn next year (Fortune, 2 Nov). OpenAI cut its latest funding target to $20bn from $30bn, per the FT, and a recent Meta filing cites an "increasingly challenging environment for raising capital". Projects that need fresh money for each phase slow first.
  • Power is the binding constraint. Energy is the Achilles heel of AI. Developers that cannot wait for interconnection build their own supply. Our release tracks 12.0 GW of on-site generation at 11 campuses.

What US Data Centre Monitoring measures

Each building moves through field preparation, construction, ramp-up and operation. Optical imagery measures footprint and progress, and footprint times power density gives capacity. Thermal imagery confirms when a building starts drawing power. Each building carries a lower-bound and a median forecast, refreshed every two weeks.

1. Ahead of the curve: capital buys parallel construction

Stargate Abilene, built by Crusoe for Oracle and OpenAI, took 25 months from the first construction start to the completion of buildings 1 to 8 (1.2 GW). Each building took 326 days on average to construct, which is only three days more than what we observed on average across 157 completed buildings. Buildings 3 to 8 (900 MW) all entered construction between April and September 2025.

ERCOT substation data show the campus drawing nearly 0.7 GW through September, against 1.2 GW of expected utility load for buildings 1 to 8 (Energy Aspects, 23 Oct). Thermal imagery confirmed buildings 3 and 5 in operation. On site, 360 MW of gas turbines run under a TCEQ standard permit. A major permit for about 1.4 GW more, to power buildings 9 and 10, has been pending since November 2025.

Fig 2: Stargate Abilene, satellite view and building-level timeline
Stargate Abilene, satellite view and building-level timeline
Stargate Abilene, satellite view and building-level timeline

2. Behind the curve: same developer, slower clock

Crusoe is also developing Google's campus at Goodnight in Armstrong County, Texas, and says it is building "at the same swift pace we set in Abilene" (Crusoe, 28 Sep). Our data show a slower clock. Buildings 1 and 2 (300 MW) entered construction in September and October 2025 and are now flagged delayed. Our updated expectations are that building 1 and 2 enter full capacity in November 2027 and January 2028, against a developer date of 30 Jun 2027. Six buildings, 780 MW in total, are under construction, with 933 MW of associated on-site generation.

Fig 3: Crusoe Goodnight campus (Google), Armstrong County TX.
Crusoe Goodnight campus (Google), Armstrong County TX.

3. Announced at gigawatt scale, little or no data-centre construction

GW Ranch in Pecos County, Texas, belongs to Amazon, which confirmed ownership in August and filed state permits for three buildings of about 200,000 sq ft each (ENR, 11 Aug). The campus is announced at 5 GW, with about 6.75 GW of planned on-site generation. Field preparation began on 7 Jul 2026 and covers more than 7 million sq ft, yet no vertical construction is visible. We expect the first 100 MW at full capacity in February 2028, against the developer’s announcement of June 2027.

Fermi America's Project Matador near Amarillo has announced 11 GW, powered by gas turbines and nuclear. Our imagery shows no data-centre construction and some activity where gas generation is expected. We have flagged this lack of activity to clients since earlyJuly, 2026. The CEO and CFO left in April with no tenant signed (E&E News, 20 Apr). A 222 MW, $6.5bn lease with TensorWave followed in August, but its closing was pushed to 31 Oct pending an investment-grade guaranty (Fermi, 22 Sep). Closing had not been publicly confirmed by 2 Nov.

Fig 4: GW Ranch (Pecos County TX)
GW Ranch (Pecos County TX)

How clients use the data

  • Congestion and FTR desks map campuses to nodes and time local load ramps building by building.
  • Fundamentals and forward-curve teams at utilities, IPPs, funds and developers replace announced pipelines with satellite-dated ramps, using the P50 and lower-bound dates as a range.
  • Equity analysts test delivery claims from hyperscalers, neoclouds and converted miners ahead of earnings.
  • Gas and midstream teams size on-site gas generation campus by campus to determine gas burn.
  • Systematic funds backtest on point-in-time release history, with forecasts shown next to actual operating dates.

The questions we hear most. Is it running? We confirm operation by thermal signal, a credible announcement or elapsed time after construction. How accurate are the forecasts? Subscribers get the full release history to backtest. How much reaches the grid? Capacity is nameplate, with on-site generation reported beside it, so users apply their own load factor.

Get ahead of the 2027 ramp

Coverage grows with every release, by 20 campuses at a time, toward every US campus above 50 MW in the US. Early adopters can choose which sites we add next and shape the roadmap and what features get prioritized next. Data arrives every other Thursday through the Energy Aspects portal, with imagery for each building, data downloads and an API.

Announcements slip. Satellites don't. Contact your Energy Aspects account manager for a data sample or a trial.

Coverage at a glance

163
campuses tracked and growing

552 buildings, 133.4 GW across 25 states and 8 grid regions

12.9 GW
reaching full capacity in the next 12 months

Median forecast. Lower bound: 29.7 GW

9.0 GW
running behind schedule

106 buildings at 49 campuses

12.0 GW
on-site generation tracked

11 campuses, reported beside load, never netted

Kayrros US Data Centre Monitoring, release of 2 Nov 2026. Nameplate capacity. Next 12 months: 3 Nov 2026 to 2 Nov 2027.
Source: Kayrros, Energy Aspects. Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026.

Appendix: methodology and references

Methodology

  • Capacity is nameplate data-centre load, estimated from measured building footprint and power density by facility type. It is not metered demand.
  • Full-capacity dates are Kayrros P50 (median) forecasts of the end of ramp-up, not first energisation. The lower bound is the earliest plausible full-capacity date.
  • Delayed means a building is running behind the Kayrros forecast baseline.
  • Operation is confirmed by thermal signal, a credible public announcement after construction ends, or elapsed time after construction.
  • On-site generation is campus-level nameplate, counted once per campus, reported beside load and never netted.
  • Planned capacity excludes buildings already operating (124.2 GW of 138.8 GW tracked).
  • Parallelism cohort: 38 campuses with at least four tracked buildings. Fleet construction median: 157 buildings with an observed construction end.

Kayrros and Energy Aspects sources

External sources

Recent Posts

Tropic thunder: Venezuela oil hype overlooks formidable growth barriers

September 9, 2026
The “historic” Venezuela–US oil deal has generated eye-catching numbers but does little to change our cautious production outlook.

How do you know a demand forecast is telling you the truth, and not just a good story?

August 24, 2026
From narrative to data-led: how Energy Aspects built an agnostic algorithmic nowcast to sense-check its demand forecasts every week.
Low stocks and China's return put a floor under crude

Low stocks, slowing SPR releases and China's return put a floor under crude

August 13, 2026
Our Kayrros inventory data show global crude stocks far below pre-conflict levels, with SPR releases slowing and Chinese buying recovering.
Show More