Weekly round-up: 13 July

EA Data

Your inventory read is three weeks stale — ours isn't

If your inventory view still relies on official onshore stock reporting, you're already behind the desks trading against real-time builds.

Signal: Kharg Island tank utilisation. Iran's onshore storage has plummeted to the lowest since 2017, with utilisation dropping 50 percentage points (15 mb) to just 34% since May's peak, as 15 vessels have loaded and sailed for Asia since the 17 June MoU. Desks reading only headline sanctions news are missing that clearance is stalling before the barrels even land.

Signal: Crude-on-water vs onshore split. Our high-frequency data show global inventories built 35 mb in the week to 3 July, but that masked a 42 mb build in crude-on-water against a 6 mb onshore draw concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE — a split that tells you loadings are outrunning demand, not confirming it.

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Maritime Analytics

40 million barrels of Iranian crude just went dark — do you know where it's headed?

If you're tracking Iranian barrels through sanctions headlines alone, you're missing where nearly 40 million barrels are actually sitting right now.

Signal: Iranian floating storage. EA Maritime Analytics shows close to 40 mb of Iranian crude now floating off Asia, with 15 vessels having loaded at Kharg and Jask since the 17 June MoU; we expect that figure to keep rising until discounts deepen enough to draw in Chinese teapot buyers.

Signal: Hormuz transit concentration. Since the MoU, 74% of inbound VLCC transits through the Strait have been operated by just two entities, Sinokor and Bahri — both targeted in this week's attacks — showing how concentrated the risk really is versus how it's being reported.

Signal: US propane loadings. USGC propane exports rose 0.3 mb/d w/w as an ethane loading lull freed dock space, with 16 fresh fixtures logged for late-July/August — a real-time read the weekly EIA print won't show you for days.

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Crude

Brent's short base is about to get squeezed — are you positioned for it?

If your desk is still short Brent on stale fundamentals, you're not pricing in how crowded — and how exposed — that trade has become.

A short-covering rally is more likely than the market is pricing. Discretionary funds remain heavily short crude and aren't positioned for the weekend's US-Iran escalation; option dealers and CTAs are set to amplify any bullish move once Brent Sep-26 clears $80/bbl.

Iran's storage squeeze is a leading indicator, not a footnote. Kharg Island tank utilisation has fallen to its lowest since 2017 (34%, down 50 ppts since May), yet nearly 40 mb of that oil is stuck floating off Asia rather than clearing.

Global stocks are building where it doesn't help the bears. Crude-on-water rose 42 mb in the week to 3 July even as Middle East onshore stocks drew 6 mb — loadings are running ahead of actual demand.

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Quant Analytics

CTAs are one print away from a 55k-lot Henry Hub dump

If you're reading gas and oil price action off the charts alone, you're missing the systematic flow that's about to decide the next move.

Signal: Henry Hub CTA positioning. Our models project over 55k lots of CTA selling over the next five sessions if prices hold below $3.05–3.10/MMBtu, with dealer gamma already at its shortest since February — a setup that risks amplifying, not dampening, the next leg down.

Signal: Brent options positioning. Discretionary funds remain heavily short crude and unhedged for further escalation; option dealers are positioned to exacerbate any bullish move once Brent Sep-26 clears $80/bbl, with call structures set to dominate flow.

Signal: Equity ETF rotation. International equity ETF flows have posted consistently positive weekly z-scores since the US-Iran MoU, recovering to late-February levels — a constructive cross-asset signal for global commodity demand that pure price-watchers will miss.

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LNG

Qatar's loadings are going dark again — can you still see the flows?

If your LNG supply view depends on AIS data alone, you're already blind to a growing share of Qatari cargoes.

Confirmed Qatari loadings are falling well short of the headline number. MTD Qatari loadings total around 0.30 Mt, in line with our 1.5 Mt July forecast, but only 0.16 Mt is actually confirmed via AIS — the rest is now moving dark following this week's Hormuz attacks.

Mexico's Pacific LNG story is about to change basin economics. Energía Costa Azul is loading its first cargo this week, arriving in Japan in roughly two weeks — versus four weeks via Panama or six via the Cape for a USGC cargo — a structural shift in Pacific basin supply timing.

India's supply signal is more cautious than the headline suggests. India revoked emergency gas allocation measures, but imports remain around 0.2 Mt/month below the pre-conflict forecast — a stabilisation, not a full recovery.

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Oil Products & Refining

Diesel cracks just moved $10/bbl and most desks missed why

If you're pricing diesel off the headline crude move, you're missing the supply story actually driving the cracks.

Diesel cracks are being driven by supply, not demand. West-of-Suez diesel cracks rose $10/bbl w/w, supported by Russia's ban on gasoil exports and continued subdued Middle East supply — a structural squeeze that should persist through the summer.

China's export relief is smaller and shakier than it looks. Beijing eased restrictions to let Rongsheng export again, potentially pushing July clean product exports above 3.5 Mt, but the full removal of the export ban expected in August is now at risk if Beijing pulls cargoes amid Middle East escalation.

Mexico's refinery problems are a gift to USGC barrels. Subdued Mexican refinery runs — down 0.13 mb/d m/m in May — pushed USGC gasoline and diesel loadings to Mexico up 0.15 mb/d m/m in June, tightening an already low USGC gasoline inventory picture.

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NGLs

US propane arbs just flipped positive — is your desk already exposed?

If you haven't repriced US LPG exports this week, you're behind a netback shift that's already triggered fresh buying.

Asian netbacks turned positive and buyers moved fast. US propane exports rose 0.3 mb/d w/w as an ethane loading lull freed dock space, prompting 16 USGC fixtures for late-July and early-August loadings.

Middle East disruption is redirecting Asian demand toward the US. Renewed Hormuz uncertainty has triggered a flurry of USGC LPG fixtures as Chinese buyers return to secure July–August volumes, also underpinning VLGC freight rates.

India's alkylate trade is reviving after a rare gap. An LR vessel has been fixed to load alkylate from Sikka for the first time since mid-May — alkylate exports were entirely absent in June for the first time in five years.

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EU Gas & Power

TTF's next €2/MWh move is already locked in by a compressor in Norway

If you're trading TTF off weather alone, you're missing a supply outage that's already tightening the curve.

Ormen Lange's maintenance is a bigger deal than the headline suggests. Consecutive outages will remove roughly 0.66 bcm of gas supply through the injection season, with TTF Aug-26 rallying from €48.3/MWh to above €50/MWh on the news before easing back.

France's storage mandate is forcing a loss-making trade. The PEG D+1–Winter-26 spread trades at €2.20/MWh backwardation, implying an intrinsic loss of €92M for capacity holders to hit the 85% fill target — with roughly 4 bcm still to inject.

Spain is running out of easy substitutes for French gas. Spanish sendout needs to rise by around 20 mcm/d to cover heatwave demand without further storage draws, but Algerian spot flows are already within 2–3 mcm/d of technical capacity.

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NA Gas & Power

Henry Hub could shed 55k lots this week — on positioning alone

If you're watching weather and ignoring positioning, you're missing the bigger driver of Henry Hub's next move.

CTA selling pressure is building beneath the surface. Our models project over 55k lots of CTA selling over the next five sessions if prices hold below $3.05–3.10/MMBtu, with dealer gamma at its shortest since February — raising the risk of further downside amplification.

Storage surplus is quietly widening. Thursday's EIA report was forecast to show a 61 bcf injection, 10 bcf above the five-year average, extending the surplus built since June to 175 bcf even as injections lagged y/y by 20 bcf.

Permian bottlenecks are still capping exit flows. EPNG's force majeure on Line 1103 has cut Guadalupe Compressor Station capacity by 0.57 bcf/d, adding to existing constraints on Permian gas moving west.

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EA360

Markets are one Brent print from pricing a second Fed hike

If your macro view treats oil and rates as decoupled right now, you're missing the channel that's back in play.

Oil is driving yields again, not the other way round. The $7/bbl jump in crude over two days has already pushed US two-year yields up 11 bps; if Brent moves toward $85/bbl, we see two-year yields heading towards 4.3% as markets rush to price in another Fed hike this year.

The Fed's own minutes argue against near-term tightening — but positioning disagrees. Current voting members skew toward rates at or below current levels by year-end, yet option-implied probability of a Q3 26 hike has topped 60% — a gap that leaves room for repricing either way.

Goods inflation has a shipping problem that isn't going away. Container rates are now up nearly 150% from pre-Iran-conflict levels, and producer price inflation in Japan and China accelerated further in June — pressure that will persist even as fuel costs ease.