Podcast: John Normand and the US compression trade

Released last week for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Amrita Sen sat down with John Normand, Head of Investment Strategy at AustralianSuper. 

The key points of discussion were: 

• John does not expect a US recession, rather he sees a compression story where RoR of investing in the US is more comparable to other countries. 
• Fund continuing to diversify away from Australian assets, inherently exposed to China; John believes China is going through one of the world's most significant growth compressions in last 50 years. 
• Without government intervention to actively buy the excess properties in the market, there is no case to be overweight China structurally. 
• John still believes risk assets will outperform safe havens, but by less than previously as earnings growth will no longer be above trend. A ceiling on growth also constrains multiples. 
• Energy transition a key topic in the fund; Amrita notes clear headwinds for Chinese growth, but another supercycle cannot be ruled out given weak upstream/downstream investment. 

Podcast recorded on 11 June 2025

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