Refining in 2025: Tighter clean-product balances to lift margins; West to outperform East

July 16, 2025

This report, first released for Energy Aspects subscribers, examines the global refining outlook for 2025, forecasting stable margins with regional variations and shifting product balances. 


What you'll learn: 


  • What global refining margins will average in 2025, with strengthening across H1 25 before softening in H2 25. 
  • Why West-of-Suez products will outperform eastern markets, with diesel balances proving more constructive than gasoline. 
  • How crude demand growth continues to be led by sour grades, with OPEC+ and Iran emerging as key swing factors for sweet-sour spreads. 
  • The significant impact of China's capacity growth, which will weigh more heavily on petrochemical margins than clean products. 
  • Critical wildcards for 2025 margins, including lower Russian product supplies, tighter Iranian availability, and potential tariff impacts. 
Refining in 2025: Tighter clean-product balances to lift margins; West to outperform East

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