Refining in 2025: Tighter clean-product balances to lift margins; West to outperform East

This report, first released for Energy Aspects subscribers, examines the global refining outlook for 2025, forecasting stable margins with regional variations and shifting product balances. 


What you'll learn: 


  • What global refining margins will average in 2025, with strengthening across H1 25 before softening in H2 25. 
  • Why West-of-Suez products will outperform eastern markets, with diesel balances proving more constructive than gasoline. 
  • How crude demand growth continues to be led by sour grades, with OPEC+ and Iran emerging as key swing factors for sweet-sour spreads. 
  • The significant impact of China's capacity growth, which will weigh more heavily on petrochemical margins than clean products. 
  • Critical wildcards for 2025 margins, including lower Russian product supplies, tighter Iranian availability, and potential tariff impacts. 
Refining in 2025: Tighter clean-product balances to lift margins; West to outperform East

Download report

Please fill in your contact details to access the full insight.

Recent Posts

Emission

What EU-UK ETS linkage means for carbon prices

June 3, 2026
The EU-UK summit, reportedly in July could confirm ETS linkage, narrowing the EUA-UKA spread and reshaping European carbon markets for years to come.
Why the Strait of Hormuz won't reopen overnight

Why the Strait of Hormuz won't reopen overnight

June 2, 2026
The market is treating Hormuz as binary: open or closed. EA's proprietary maritime data shows oil flow recovery will be slow, uneven and may never fully normalise.
High-frequency data show limited demand response to oil prices

High-frequency data show limited consumer demand response to higher oil prices

May 28, 2026
High-frequency data suggest higher oil prices have yet to trigger meaningful demand destruction, with trucking, gasoline and jet fuel consumption largely resilient.
Show More