Jeff Currie on tech bubbles and a once-in-a-lifetime chance for energy bulls

This transcript has been automatically generated and may contain errors or inaccuracies. It is provided for reference only and should not be considered a fully accurate record of the conversation.

Amrita

Jeff. Welcome back.

Jeff

Great to be back.

Amrita

Summer holidays are over, I think.

Jeff

God, I.

Amrita

Don't think it felt like holidays, given everything that's going on. But still, lots to talk about. Let's we could start with. I mean, there's a lot, but we can we definitely need to touch upon the fact that the market continues to remain extremely bearish. Yet there are no signs in the physical market. And I just got back from Asia from OPEC.

Amrita

Everyone in the East is like, where is this glut? Where is the oil? Then of course, we've had the IEA recently released their report about how decline rates, which I know you've been talking about for a while, and I have been and we've been the only two people keep banging on about this. Actually, decline rates are higher than what they were initially thinking.

Amrita

We know spare capacity is OPEC's spare capacity is probably a bigger topic than the market realized because OPEC is increasing production quote unquote. But the exports aren't really showing up. Chinese SVR buying. And last but not the least, all the geopolitical tensions bubbling around Russia, Iran, Venezuela. I mean, there's a whole host of things to talk about.

Amrita

I think let's start with oil, right? I remember the last one we talked about in terms of the oil balances specifically. You kept saying that I just don't agree with this narrative, right, that I just don't see why this has to kind of collapse. And we've been saying in our research, we keep highlighting that, look, yes, the builds are material going forward if these OPEC volumes materialize, but these OPEC volumes haven't been coming.

Amrita

Right. Have you seen a change in the last few months with the summer lull that people have stepped back and been like, actually, the market continues to remain backward dated. The builds on showing up, I at least will say every single person I speak to is even more convicted that these builds are coming.

Jeff

Yeah, I and what I find so surprising is the level of conviction on something they have never seen, which is the spare capacity that's going to create that massive surplus. And there's no evidence of it. You know, I think I'm going to just give you the back, the back, the numbers you gave me last week, which I used on Bloomberg, recently was overall, OPEC production announcement.

Jeff

There are 2.5 million barrels per day increase. Exports are up 900,000 barrels a day. That is what we're missing. 1.6 million barrels per day of that 900, 5 to 600 of it. Saudi, 2 to 300 of it up and a smidgen from like Kuwait. That's core OPEC. Nobody else has increased production. And yeah, I think the saying of Warren Buffett, when the tide goes out, you find out who's swimming naked here.

Jeff

Swimming naked is not having spare capacity. And I think it's pretty clear Russia I mean Ukraine takes constant hits at Russia. You know, they be lucky. You know they're not increasing production. And if anything it's going to likely start going down. Us, you know, the unemployment rate in Texas is spiking. Was in the unemployment claims last week are down 3000 jobs in the oil patch.

Jeff

They're not increasing production. So right there you know, you look at your two largest oil producers, they're likely going to start declining because they're not investing. And I don't have to go to the rest of non-OPEC. So I really struggle. Where are these inventory builds going to come from? And, you know, the demand numbers were revised up 770,000 barrels per day.

Jeff

IEA says decline rates are setting in. The bottom line You look at this market even going back to 2022, it hasn't built inventories. It's remained backward dated. Demand is remaining far more robust than what anybody is thought and investments not there. So, you know, the evidence supports the bullish narrative. And the bearish narrative is based upon, you know, you know, assumptions that have never been tested.

Jeff

So I the part of it I just simply do not understand is why that conviction, I think why is the conviction because the price won't move. Why doesn't the price move if you're an investor and you haven't been invested in tech, you're in trouble. You are massively underweight. So the bottom line is people get longer and longer.

Jeff

Ten stocks, some of them are worth $4 trillion and they have to be longer. If they aren't long, they're in trouble and eventually they're going to be in trouble. And, you know, you look at since we last talked, I was really bullish on oil and all the other commodities and record highs on gold, copper just topped 10,000.

Jeff

What do I think is going to kill off the hyperscalers. It's going to be lack of investment in the grid and copper. And when they go down that's when you're going to want to be long oil. And the question is when do they hit a wall? You know, the survey showed 92% of the hyperscalers say what's their number one issue, why they can't hit their targets, access to grid.

Jeff

So I think we're going to get there. And I do think the physical world will take down the hyperscalers. And when you take them down, then you're going to get the rotation in back into our space. And oh my God, they're underweight. You know if I was bullish a year ago I mean so Mark much more bullish.

Jeff

And I don't think people have any fathom how high how high this is going to go. They have been declining reducing their positions now for two and a half three years. So right now you look at the S&P 500 Energy's 3% of the index. It's one of the most important industries out there. I mean it's yeah I think it's real estate and utilities.

Jeff

The only ones that are lower, like two and a half and even utilities are important. So we've you see that rotation occur. Investors are going to be scrambling for any exposure they possibly can get. So I you know, I think the the case is is overwhelmingly on the bullish side. And I always like to take the contrarian view, in a market that's particularly short right now.

Amrita

I think for me, what really stands out to your point is that conviction, even though it's been proven wrong for nine months, right. And yet, oh, it is coming. And it's so universal, this view. Right. That's what scares me. And I mean, again, you know, we know this very well that there is a reason why OPEC and particularly Prince Abdulaziz is so confident in terms of this unwind, because in some ways, you know, my interpretation of a lot of this, is that.

Amrita

Okay? Show me where the spare capacity is. Right. And I think he is going to be proven right significantly in terms of just how the rest of the players are kind of coming out without really having any barrels. And it then becomes and begs the question, you were at the heart of that 2004 two 2008 bull rally.

Amrita

You know, you were the one calling for those significant price increases at that point. I also feel a lot of people in today's market, they haven't they weren't there at that point. I feel old saying this, by the way. Yeah. I was just like, I was like, I just started my career around 2008. But I remember that and I was reading up a lot about that.

Amrita

And I think when I highlight the fact that, yes, we've come off $15 in a backward dated market, one of the steepest backwardation we've seen, and then people are like, oh, we're going to go into contango, and therefore the front's going to go down to $40. I'm like, if we get into contango, sure, Q1 balances do look weak.

Amrita

We can get into some physical contango. But the other thing is the back end of the curve is probably going to go bad, which is exactly what happened like two decades ago. And then the whole curve moves up. So you can be in a contango market, but a higher flat price.

Jeff

Yep. And I remember, you know, making that call in 2000, we were right for all the wrong reasons. It wasn't bullish. It was really.

Amrita

Bearish. It was really bearish.

Jeff

Yes in the back end and went up. I remember when it first started moving in 0405. We just went from 20 to like 35 and then 35 to 50. But here's the thing that I think that going back to why people have a conviction is the prices remain low and they don't know why. It's a lack of liquidity.

Jeff

Dollar super strong. This is identical to 2001-2002. And I remember right on the eve of of it was December 31st, 2001, going into 2002. And that's when China was admitted to the WTO. And that's when the game started. The dollar was trading 0.87 against the euro. Yeah. You had oil back rotated sitting at you know, something like I can't remember where it was.

Jeff

Actually, if it was 2001, it was probably somewhere around 18, $19 a barrel back rotated. And we were bullish based upon, you know, the China and all this other stuff. But the reality is then OPEC stepped on the accelerator, brought on that supply, flipped into contango, and then the back end and all liquidity on it drove it out.

Jeff

I think we're on the identically the same same position there.

Amrita

Which is why I wanted you to like almost tell the audience what happened then, because I genuinely think people don't remember. Okay.

Jeff

Oh one That February oh two, we published the piece The Revenge of the Old Economy, and we were making this simple observation just like now. And it was, you know, the, the, the new economy was, you know, it's was screaming going in, you know, toward the middle of oh, one, by the way, it was already cracked by the time you wrote that piece, but it was this same time.

Jeff

Yeah. We could sucked all the capital out of the world into all of those dot.com stocks that were, you know, them in Silicon Valley. And eventually, yeah, they didn't have the profits to maintain it. My way is identical today because instead of data centers it was broadband and telecom. Yeah it was a and everybody wanted Calpine actually was the darling like constellation is today and Vistra is today.

Jeff

So it was the exact same set up you wanted to own the power. The power is going to go into the internet. The internet's going to change the world. We want to own broadband. Why? We we're just now exhausting all that spare capacity that was built over that time period. And even Sam Altman is talking about, we're overbuilding this stuff, and you're going up pressure the system.

Jeff

But, you know, gas was the focus. And I think I was saying this last time I put on my gas, I didn't want to do oil. And I, you know.

Amrita

Now you've come back.

Jeff

Yeah, I'm coming back then. But I think, you know, the setup is identically the same. I don't know, this time if we do go into to contango because you got to go, but at least then you had a massive amount of spare capacity still in Saudi Arabia. And, you know, Iraq had come online, was able to come online that flipped you into that contango.

Jeff

And then the demand growth was the highest ever recorded in oh four. China went up like 3.1 or 2.2 million barrels per day, literally one year. And that's when OPEC brought it all online. And then you're out, by the way. Then the market got really bearish in 0607. And inventories built. And then you go into 0708. And you know I know Prince Abdulaziz.

Jeff

He was a deputy minister in 0708 Niamey was in they Niamey was shocked. He brought on all the spare capacity in 0708. And then the market proceeded to go up $50 a barrel, because it's a fine line between oil surplus and running out of capacity. I don't do the bounces anymore, like use I don't have a fine idea about.

Jeff

I'm not. I hear you on the the inventory builds, but we're into this and we still haven't seen the inventory builds. They revised demand up, revised supply down. We may be in a double whammy here. Where? Hey, you're out of spare capacity, you're out of inventory. And the other thing that makes this even more different than any other point in time is you always had some big producer that had sanctions on it.

Jeff

You don't have them anymore. Venezuela's in the market, Iran's in the market. Russia's in the market. Anything those three are going to go down. US is exhausted. It's SPR. So the insurance policies are out. China is the only one that's actually concerned about this building spares. They've got their insurance policy. They're ready to to rock and roll.

Jeff

The things get into it. But the West, you know, I don't understand what they have done. They've put themselves in a very precarious situation right now. You know, and I think that that's the one thing is different. So I hear you on the on the inventory building going up in a contango and we where we went down in the backwardation.

Jeff

But I think if there's anything why is the market wrong. And I think it's the same situation and no 1 or 2 is you had to be overweight the hyper scale. You have to be overweight tech right now are you got a problem. And everybody I talked to go, why don't you want to buy this stuff is because, yeah, I hear you, but it doesn't work.

Jeff

And if it doesn't work here, the other thing to I am really going to learn in my 30 years of doing this, nobody has to buy a financial product. They have to buy oil, they have to buy this. You can sit there and do the fundamentals all day long. Nobody's going to force you to buy this stuff, and you don't have to buy it until you're really underweight and you got a problem.

Jeff

So right now, if you're if you're not long tech, you got a problem. You're you're you're you're underperforming. If you're not long energy, you haven't had a problem for a decade.

Amrita

To why change.

Jeff

Why change. And they're not going to change until they have to.

Amrita

But I think so. No I agree I mean you could easily get a situation especially now, right. If Russia will lose more barrels or any of these countries, we won't get that contango because we'll just absorb it. But do you at least get the sense that that back end of the curve has to get a bit, because we've talked about spare capacity, probably what that's talking about non-OPEC supply, because we talked about this last time as well after 26, really from that mid 27 onwards, there isn't a project database of new supply.

Amrita

The bulk of and we have a great chart which I'll probably show at the conference in terms of how, much supply is coming online this year, because it's both OPEC and non-OPEC, but after that it's flat. Yep. Right. So in terms of your double whammy, it could be triple because then you ought to realize, hang on, there's no new incremental non-OPEC either right.

Jeff

Yep. There's nothing out there. There's there's no insurance policy.

Amrita

Right. And then let's talk about the IEA just released report about higher decline rates. Right. Like that's my worry that yes, we're focused on these builds are coming. But then just 12 to 18 months out you got a problem. Yeah.

Jeff

But but here's my question. Who's going to buy the back end.

Amrita

That's why I'm asking you. Like do we send some of these long term investors are starting to get interested or not even not yet.

Jeff

There's nobody left that knows anything about this to go out and and do this. You know, it's like so I mean, the reality is, and anybody who knows anything about oil, you know, the understands the cycles of it, they've all left. They've gone and done other things, just like, you know, now with the, you know, in the, in the oil patch, you get rid of all these, these drillers and hey, where are you going to find them.

Jeff

There's nobody left. You're going to have to retrain everybody. Bring him back and somebody who knows it. And most people who trade these markets, they don't know what. Oh they don't. You know, I'm like, you ain't seen nothing yet until you see what happens to this tech bubble when it burst. Even Sam Altman is like, God, it's a bubble.

Jeff

And I think the the people were shell shocked on Liberation Day. That market could go down that much that fast. Yeah. Okay. And I go, well, that's you know, you you lived through 0102I remember in Goldman walking around on those tech floors, they were vacant. And it was scary. And I don't think the world is ready for what is going to be in for.

Jeff

Because the only way you can go, hey, how am I going to buy that back in? You got to get you got to take down that tech story. And taking that tech story down is going to be a painful process in my away. Oil and commodities got they always get hit in this thing. So the the initial process is going to be violent.

Jeff

But then you know, the capital has to find a new home. It doesn't it's not it's not quite a zero sum game, but it's pretty close to it. So you're going to have all this capital going home. Where do we go next. And the obvious place to go is going to be energy. I just don't see find me another sector that's going to have attractive fundamentals.

Jeff

When tech ends its game here. And so when you move on to the next and by the way, I think, you know, copper mining, it's the whole space. It is the same revenge of the old economy story here. And but I think the it has to start with creating the investor that buy the back end. And right now the money's parked in tech and and by the way, it's rightfully parked in there.

Jeff

I don't know where it's going to. And my guess is, is they're going to keep missing their targets because of grid access or, or cost of copper and whatever it might be, Transformers. And eventually people go, this is not happening.

Amrita

It might be 12 months like, but in some ways it coincides perfectly with the most bullish part for oil, which is kind of a year or so out. Yeah, given the lack of spare capacity, lack of non-OPEC supplies. Yeah, but you're right. I think the initial bit might things might get worse first before it gets better. But I just worry that when things like when the liquidity comes the move off, it's just going to be exponential potentially.

Jeff

Oh I do I agree I, I think you know, I don't you know I was too bullish you know but I right now I don't think I've ever been this is a once in a lot generation type opportunity here because we have ignored the space. You know it's worse. And actually here's a stat like to say in 1999, 2000, as we went in there, we had a stat we would say is that US MPs destroyed $0.72 on every dollar.

Jeff

Excuse me, they destroyed $0.28 on every dollar. So they only they only could enter 72 on each dollars. What they earned this time around is they destroyed $0.54 on every dollar. So it's way worse than what we did in that 1990s. So you have less investment there. Oh, and the other thing I'd like to point out to the hyperscalers are doing identically the same thing is what the shield guys did when they destroyed all that money.

Jeff

They're spending money over there. At one point, the shale guys peaked out at 1.5 times earnings. And what they were spending way more the hyperscalers around 1.3 right now. So they're and it's just like you guys, we've seen this story again. It doesn't end very well. And so you know, they're spending and they keep funding and they create stories about why this makes sense.

Jeff

And then everybody tells me energy's a bad investment. We got killed in 2014. Yeah. They were spending 1.5 times earnings.

Amrita

Now they're not now.

Jeff

They're not so I think you know the setup here is far better than what it was in, in the 2000. Now the part that's missing is you don't have have China, having that big demand impetus. But then I go, okay, like I've talked before is all right. Europe has got to go out. And now, oh, we can talk Poland and Qatar and all that.

Jeff

The Europeans, they got to spend enormous amounts on defense, and it looks like they're going to do it. And that stuff requires a lot of commodity and energy energy infrastructure. And, you know, it's going to be a diversification of oil refining, you know, renewables, you know, it's everything nukes. And so I tend to think you're going to get, you know, a you got a, you got the makings of the big CapEx boom, like the 2000 with Europe sitting at the center.

Jeff

But I don't think you can ever be is as explosive you're not going to get I'm not going to say it won't happen, but you're not going to get a 3.4 million barrels per day demand increase. Like what you got in 2000.

Amrita

No, no. And I really think this is probably going to be even more supply driven. Yeah. Than demand driven. Right. Because of the confluence of factors. But your point good segue into the geopolitics, right? I mean, right now, like you said, Vince, in the market, Iran exporting anywhere between 1.5 to 1.7, Russia, they're exporting everything they can, right.

Amrita

They're only bound by OPEC plus quotas. And by the way, they're overachieving on that because they can't produce.

Jeff

Yeah, they can't produce.

Amrita

So this is also where I find and I will say the market is bearish, but probably not as short as it could be because people are just very worried that, okay, any of these geopolitical events could happen. But the volumes we're talking about are huge. That could be lost, right? Yeah. And even if you assume China continues to buy it, even right now, India and the US are in trade talks and they're saying you do need to reduce Russian imports.

Amrita

So where do you see all of this playing?

Jeff

I don't I don't see China or India reducing their Russian exports if anything actually this morning India is up observing Russian military equipment on the border and and so on the Ukrainian border, which is telling you that the Americans are pushing the Indians away. And when when you look at if you do take China and you do Russia, Iran and Venezuela, and you put those three together, China is is basically energy independent.

Jeff

So by creating these sanctioned entities that China is siphoning out, you, China, you're just making does China want this war to end? Absolutely not. Is us going to do anything to in these clearly they Poland, the Russia sent drones into Poland and and what was Trump's it looks like it accidentally. They're not going to do anything.

Jeff

And I don't think it's in anyone's interest to do anything besides Europe. Yeah. Europe's got a problem, which I. I'm going to go back. Europe is going to spend a lot of money on defense because they got to take matters into their own hands. You know, they've had 75 years to figure this out. And you know they're getting cut off.

Jeff

It's time to grow up and take care of yourself. And I think you're in Europe for talking to give you the idea that numbers I think I talked about last time, China was a $10 trillion investment boom between oh 2 in 2012. Put that in today's terms. It's, you know, 15 trillion. Worst case scenario, I'm going to put it in dollars is the, the, the European and military boom is 5 trillion on the bottom and potentially 14, 15 trillion on the top.

Jeff

So it's on the scale of China. If it you know, if they really did. And by the way, every day we go through this, it looks more and more like Europe's going to have to move closer to the 1415 trillion, it's €14 trillion. Kind of.

Amrita

What Trump wants, right? He's basically now saying if you do it I will join. Yeah. Yeah. I mean let's whether he does it or not, that's a different story. But that's kind of his ask.

Jeff

Yeah. And you know, I, you know, let's you know I, I'm not an expert on geopolitics here. But you know, you take that Monroe Doctrine in. He's sure acting like it's Monroe Doctrine now at stake. You know, deal with your own home and ignore what's happening in the rest of the world. And the fact that he's, you know, there's skirmishes going on in places like Venezuela and the Chinese are there, you know, is that something that that could flare up?

Jeff

But I think you're going to your point is, we're not going to wake up tomorrow and have all this Russian and Iranian oil. I don't know where that's going to come from. So again, I just don't know where the conviction your odds of waking up tomorrow morning with Russian oil, something happening there I think are much higher than mysteriously getting more oil.

Jeff

So I, I'm I'm baffled by how even the politics, the geopolitics are playing out because I think it just reinforces the upside.

Amrita

Especially now Ukraine is explicitly actually talking about the fact that this is the best way to damage Russian revenues. And they've been extremely successful this time around. 13 refinery attacks in August, five already in September. It's probably only going to go up.

Jeff

But I have a question for you. You know, Biden would call up Zelensky every time he you take a hit at one of those refineries. Stop it. And Trump is equally concerned about inflation through oil prices. Why isn't Trump calling them up and doing the same thing?

Amrita

I mean, the best thing I heard, yesterday and it's quite funny saying, oh, Trump must know Q4 balances are going to be very weak. And I did start laughing saying that I don't think Trump follows oil prices. That was the no. But I, I, I get the sense an audible team have been kind of saying that there is he Trump definitely wants some form of a deal, right?

Amrita

He likes the big headlines. He doesn't really want to sanction Russia because I think he just doesn't believe it's going to work. Yeah. But at the same time, he probably has given Zelenskyy a bit of free rein. One of the things is if or like crude prices were to start going up, because we've still been extremely rangebound, right.

Amrita

We've still between 65 and 74. Brant and yes, again, diesel is going up, gasoline is going up. And I don't think that's necessarily on Trump's radar. I have a feeling if crude jumped $10 he would probably make that call. Right, right, right now, which we'd still pretty like for him. Remember it just not that long ago. He said $64 WTI is a good price.

Jeff

Yeah for.

Amrita

Whatever reason. And kind of there right. Yeah. So I think that's why he hasn't picked up the phone. I think if prices went up say Brant towards AT&T above 75 he probably would make that call. Yeah. Also a big part of what he's driving now at is we need to cut rates.

Jeff

By the way, on the on the damage that, that Ukraine has done to Russia. You know, JP JPMorgan put it that like 500,000 and another one put it at, you know, it's, you know, something like 1.5. Where do you put the damage on on the refining right now.

Amrita

Capacity is more it's like 1.5 etc.. But the actual loss in runs is about a million barrels per day, give or take. Now, obviously some are coming back as they've been. The damage is limited. Some damages are much bigger. I think for me the biggest thing the market is missing. And to state the obvious, Russia is actually a really big country.

Amrita

The transit times take long. So a lot of people were like, oh, refineries were hit. Oh, we're not seeing it. We're not seeing it. And our, products team are about to put out something tomorrow that the monthly additional space. And there's a chart in there that shows this month tracking the lowest diesel exports out of Russia in over five years.

Jeff

Wow. Wow.

Amrita

So I think that's the issue because so much of the oil or whether it be crude, whether it be diesel, is already in the pipeline, in transit or on rail cars in transit. So there is a good one month lag between when the refineries are getting hit and all conversations. One of the very interesting revelations is some of these refineries can't even reroute this crude.

Amrita

They just have to shut in. Yes. So I genuinely think the worst is about to happen.

Jeff

That now I'm right there with with you on that, by the way, on the point about, you know, Trump knowing where the balance is. One thing that I spend a lot of time now with people who are not close to the market, but I used to be like you, talking to everybody that close is you can take people that trade commodities and that are in they really they all they hear about is surplus and they really think it's shale like the common view is shale is yes.

Jeff

There's screaming increase. You know, things to you know, our friend Harvey Blah is talking about all of that increase coming. I think what you have a consensus view out there that shale is the savior. And I bet even Trump believes that. And I think because the vast majority of your average investor is under the view, there's a huge surplus that's coming and it's going to be driven by US shale.

Jeff

That is the non non specialist.

Amrita

View.

Jeff

Narrative.

Amrita

But do you think then the IEA report which they finally say okay decline rates are you know 8% instead of 3%. Does that change the narrative.

Jeff

Because it's too it's just the word decline rates too difficult for a non-specialist to even absorb. They don't they don't understand it. And it's two. So that report went well you know viral in our world. Yeah. But to anybody outside of us yeah it's just nobody nobody paid attention. And they nobody will pay attention until the price moves.

Jeff

Yeah. It goes back to that point. The one thing I have learned in all this is we can be as bullish as you want.

Amrita

But the price has to do.

Jeff

The price has to do the work. And then people go, oh something's going on. Yeah. And and so at this point right now, yeah, I mean you look at the key, how you, it's costing you every day if you aren't long.

Amrita

So, good segue. We've got our conference coming up 29 30th of September.

Jeff

Looking forward to it.

Amrita

You're going to be there. You're one of our key speakers. And, we've got quite a few CEOs coming, not just from majors, but the shale patch. And I've been having conversations with them in the lead up to it, you know, talking about what we're going to talk about. And they are amazed. They see the same thing. They just saying, we don't understand how people think we're going to squeeze any more out of this.

Amrita

We are doing what we can and they're like $65. WTI is just not good enough anymore. So I think we hear a lot from them. We've got, you know, the deputy Energy secretary coming from the US as well. So that'll be an interesting one in terms of seeing, what what that headline, kind of, talks he wants to give.

Amrita

But yeah, I mean, we've got some OPEC, ministers and, and we'll see. I think it just kind of ends up being the timing will be super crucial because it's still a little like a few, even a few days these days with what's going on in Russia, can really, really change that dynamic. Yeah.

Jeff

I actually I'm not a I know you say the fundamental balance is starts to shift. You know, it's close to next year. But the reality is that once this market moves and people, some fear gets in this saying, this thing's going to move and move quickly, it'll always move well before what we think you know, and I think you start seeing Russia get really tight.

Jeff

And, you know, I there's closet walls out there. They call me, they go, you know, I need to have some I need some string to get long. This thing. Yeah. By the way, I would be, you know, I'm personally. Because then I can trade this stuff. Now I'm long. I'm there. So like, your could your cost benefit ratio right now with being long versus being.

Amrita

Short all these levels.

Jeff

Is, is. Yeah. It's just we know you're digging into the cost curve Employment's going down in Texas right now. Your your risk reward. Just back up the track. You know buy this stuff. And you know buy it back in, buy anything you can get your hands on. Because the other thing too, whether if it's the companies or the, the markets themselves, there's just not enough capacity for the, for the financial markets once they go, hey, I need some exposure to this stuff, but there's nothing there.

Amrita

And I think what might end up happening and I'll close with this, is that we are going into the conference allegedly in the most bearish ever oil market balances outside of Covid, right? Yeah. Deep down, my gut says we'll probably come out of it. Everybody's going to be like, no, this is actually really bullish.

Jeff

Yeah yeah I, I agree with that.

Amrita

Well we'll see it. But I just have a feeling talking to the speakers, talking to a few who are coming. Like you said, there's a few closet bulls. They don't want to come out and say it, but I think more and more of the data that's coming out just kind of suggests that, that the glut that everybody's talking about is just not there.

Jeff

No it's not.

Amrita

Thanks, Jeff.

Jeff

It was a Pleasure to be here

Amrita

I see you in a couple of days.

Jeff

Excellent. Looking forward to it. Thank you.