Energy Aspects Conference 2026: Global market dynamics

26 February 2026

These insights are drawn from the session “Global market dynamics,” moderated by moderated by  Dr. Amrita Sen (Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, Energy Aspects) at the Energy Aspects Conference 2026. Please note that this discussion took place before the recent conflict involving Iran and the wider Middle East, which has since significantly impacted global energy markets. Our analysis will continue to evolve as events unfold.

Key Insights

• Volatility driven by event risk and geopolitical tensions is reshaping trading strategies and risk management.
• Options markets are increasingly used to price risk premiums amid binary geopolitical risks.
• US gas market volatility is likely to remain elevated, with storage and LNG exports as key drivers.
• The oil market faces uncertainty from Middle East tensions, with potential policy shifts on the horizon.
• Analytical rigour and flexibility are essential for navigating today’s complex market environment.
  

In this session, David D’Alessandro (Founder and CIO, CMDTY Capital Management), Sebastian Barrack (Head of Commodities, Citadel), Ben Marshall (President and CEO, Vitol Americas), and Richard Bronze (Head of Geopolitics, Energy Aspects) explored the shifting landscape of global energy markets, focusing on the interplay between price volatility, geopolitical risk, and market fundamentals.

The panel agreed that volatility driven by event risk and geopolitical tensions has required a more analytical approach to understanding the market. While volatility creates opportunity, the significant levels of uncertainty from event risk in recent years have made it more challenging for market participants to trade with conviction. The speakers noted that options markets are increasingly being used to price risk premiums, especially in the face of binary geopolitical risks. In this environment, probability assessments and a detailed understanding of the potential impact on production and defence capabilities are more important than ever.

Turning to the gas market, the speakers highlighted that storage requirements in the US are likely to keep volatility elevated, particularly as LNG exports grow and cold snaps increase demand. The outlook for US gas was described as relatively unexciting, with a bias to the downside in the near term. It was noted that producers have become far more responsive to price signals.

On oil, the panel warned of the military build-up in the Middle East, which has since escalated. However, they expect the market to weaken later in the year. There was also discussion around the potential for a Trump administration to use policy levers, such as sanctions relief, to lower oil prices if needed.

Overall, the session underscored the importance of understanding both the structural and event-driven forces shaping global energy markets. Analytical rigour and flexibility remain essential for navigating the current environment.