Energy Aspects offers high-frequency research coverage of the global natural gas markets, led by Trevor Sikorski. We publish a comprehensive suite of reports combining data analysis, market fundamentals and forward-looking commentary. Our experienced analysts provide the information and insight you need to stay ahead of the global natural gas markets.
South Korea has been one the LNG market’s big surprises this year, with year-to-date LNG demand rising by over 4 Mt y/y despite expectations that it would fall. The country also made headlines in June, as the new government announced a change in direction in energy policy—away from nu..
Today’s report (week ended 15 Sep): EIA: +97 bcf, EA: +95 bcfToday’s reported injection came in some 4 bcf above consensus estimates. To calibrate our balances, we downwardly adjusted gas use in the power sector by 0.1 to 25.2 bcf/d and decreased residential-commercial demand by less than 0.1 bcf..
We are pleased to introduce our new Lower 48 gas storage report. This report provides our forecast for the upcoming EIA storage report, a preliminary estimate for next week’s report and a summary of key supply and demand changes. Panorama will now be published on Thursday’s, after the EIA report,..
Japan’s LNG imports fell by 6% (0.47 Mt) y/y in August to 7.26 Mt, as cooler weather helped curb power generation. August posted the largest y/y drop in Japanese LNG imports since December 2016, with imports over the earlier months of 2017 broadly higher or flat y/y.The weather in Japan las..
Indian LNG imports slipped by 0.05 Mt y/y to 1.58 Mt (2.08 bcm) in August, as higher power demand was met by a sharp jump in coal-fired generation instead of gas-powered output.Rising global LNG prices may have led price-sensitive India to turn down spot cargo purchases last month. Prices for Aug..
Heavy maintenance affected Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) output throughout the summer. With more works scheduled for October, output will continue to see day-to-day swings, but disruptions are scheduled to be more minor than seen so far in September. We expect WCSB output growth to hi..
NBP and continental gas prices continued their bull run last week, supported by high coal prices, unseasonably cold weather, low LNG receipts, and tighter pipeline supply.NBP D+1 prices averaged 46.97 p/therm last week, up by 2% w/w, and the NBP M+1 edged up by 0.56 p/therm w/w to an average of 4..
South Korea imported 2.6 Mt of LNG in August, 0.63 Mt more y/y despite weaker demand, with imports once again supported by receipts to non-KOGAS terminals.Qatari volumes made up the largest single portion of imports, at 0.95 Mt in August. This was a 0.13 Mt y/y rise that pointed to greater..
Our last outlook, Summer softness, July/August 2017, marvelled at the weakness of the European gas markets, seemingly resistant to a number of supportive drivers such as hot weather in early summer, rising coal prices and low hydro levels in southern Europe. Fast forward almost two months and the..
Norwegian gas output posted a 2.34 bcm (29%) y/y increase to 10.37 bcm in August—the highest y/y rise since April 2016—owing to a light annual maintenance schedule and brisk Troll output. Planned maintenance in August—heavier than in July but still much lighter compared with August 2016—was..
In August, cooler-than-normal weather in northern Europe led to declines in gas demand in Belgium, the Netherlands and France. In the UK, gas demand was largely flat y/y at 3.5 bcm as slower growth in power sector demand offset gains in other sectors. In the southern markets of Spain and Italy, l..
Energy Aspects expects tomorrow’s EIA storage number to be an 86 bcf injection. Our initial forecasts for the next two EIA storage weeks are injections of: 91 bcf and 79 bcf.Production in the Gulf Coast has been recovering towards its 3.2 bcf/d level before hurricane Harvey hit Texas, according t..
NBP and TTF gas prices edged higher last week as lower LNG sendout and Norwegian supply—compared to late August—aligned with strong injections into storage to further narrow the y/y storage gap.The market looks set to stay in a reasonably tight range as planned late-summer maintenance curbs Norwe..
The EU market balanced in August through higher overall imports, with increased supply from Russia and LNG more than offsetting the reductions in imports from North Africa. EU imports of Russian gas in August were up by 3.3 bcm (31%) y/y at 14.1 bcm, which is also 9% higher m/m, data..
The main story in the southern European gas markets over the last few months has been low hydro reservoir levels, which have supported higher thermal generation during peak cooling season as well as strong imports of pipeline gas and LNG. In Spain, hydro reservoir levels were 20% lower y/y at the..