Long-term energy market outlook

The Long-term energy market outlook service provides our forecasts for international energy markets out to 2040. As well as a region- and country-specific and fuel-type approach, we also look at the key contributing sectors. Our approach delivers a comprehensive understanding of how oil, gas, coal, renewables and nuclear markets will evolve over the coming decades based on existing and likely policy decisions and trends.

Now in its second year, the service has evolved to include country-by-country demand data through to 2040 plus comprehensive gas supply analysis, a detailed oil refining section and hydrogen coverage.

Combining comprehensive data sets, deep-dive analysis and our forecasts to 2040, the long-term service delivers actionable insight to drive corporate strategy and investment decisions.

Long-term energy market outlook

This extensive and detailed annual report is the foundation of the service. Built on our detailed proprietary model of primary energy production and consumption, it incorporates in-depth analysis of a wide range of topics that will drive future energy markets and prices (e.g. electric vehicles, petrochemicals and Asian economic growth) including detailed forecasts over the next twenty years.

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Long-term outlook data

Download the detailed data behind our outlook for the five sources of primary energy: oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewables and energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen. The data cover supply and demand for all energy sources and oil products country by country. Price forecasts include crude, oil products and natural gas. Other data provide long-term numbers on vehicle data, refining, economic and population data. The service now also includes electricity generation mix by country and hydrogen demand.

 

 

 

Medium-term update

We refresh the medium-term outlook-looking out over the next five years once a year to ensure our forecast reflects the latest fundamental drivers on the prompt such as economic shifts, technology changes, and regulatory and political dynamics. The service ensures subscribers always benefit from timely analysis of the factors affecting the markets.

We also launched our Medium-Term LNG service in June 2020. This service analyses the expanding global LNG trade and comes with in-depth country-by-country import and export forecasts. We discuss current and future developments in the LNG sector’s liquefaction and regasification infrastructure, drawing from our extensive infrastructure databases when crafting our modelling approaches.

 

 

 

E-mail Alerts

We publish timely E-mail Alerts examining market developments that affect the assumptions that drive our long-term forecast. For example, a series of major new upstream discoveries, a significant technological breakthrough or a shift in the outlook for the global economy. Each month we provide a detailed overview of the latest developments that will impact the long-term outlook.

 

 

Notes - Long-term

Notes

Notes examine our outlook for the mid-term and long-term forecast time horizons. These analytical pieces summarise the effects on our forecasts of changes to price drivers including the slowing coal industry, the developing hydrogen economy and policy shifts in the energy transition. Each Note consists of a short commentary and may also provide easy-to-navigate table summaries as well as key charts.

 

 


In Focus

In Focus reports serve as our outlooks for the main themes that are developing within the energy markets over the next two decades. The reports provide an overview of our thinking on the energy transition as energy use begins to include renewable and newer forms of supply as well as conventional hydrocarbon use. Sub-sections of the reports offer detailed analysis of how key energy transition themes might impact existing crude oil, gas, oil products and emissions markets as well as how global policy and macroeconomics might shape the energy markets going forward.

 

 

Workshops

Subscribers are invited to our exclusive long-term workshops, held annually in our London and Houston offices. The workshops provide a valuable forum for our analysts to present our long-term methodology and views and fully address topics of interest to our clients.

 

 

Access to analysts

Our global team of analysts delivers rapid responses to our clients on market queries, data, prices and forecasts. We host regular Insight events for clients to hear our market outlooks and meet our teams.