Crude oil

The oil service, led by Amrita Sen in London, covers global crude oil markets. Clients, ranging from trading houses and major producers to hedge funds and government ministries, rely on our analysis to understand the complexities of world oil markets.

     Perspectives 

This is our flagship weekly publication, combining commentary on key market themes with the latest data releases. Every Monday, Perspectives provides unparalleled information, analysis and views on the issues influencing prices, whilst exploring themes that will shape the future of the market. Perspectives also offers detailed quarterly supply-demand balances by key regions and countries, comparing them to IEA, EIA and OPEC Secretariat benchmarks. It also includes a database of large upcoming upstream projects.

 

     Fundamentals

This monthly data review provides in depth analysis of oil and oil products fundamentals over the last month. The publication combines all of the data releases from the last month by key supply and demand regions and countries, with coverage including China, the US, FSU, India and the Middle East. Fundamentals offers a comprehensive overview of supply and demand, inventories and prices, and analysis of significant trends and themes. 

 

     Data review

Data reviews explore the fundamental supply and demand data by country or key agency reports, combining the latest data releases with our extensive models. Data reviews provide an instant update of key data releases, for example North Sea and OPEC oil supplies, Chinese trade data, Petroleum Supply Monthly with US data revisions, and the weekly US EIA data release on inventories. Each data review comes with a brief commentary, easy to navigate table summaries, and key charts.

 

E-mail alert - Oil      E-mail alerts

We provide rapid insights into how market events and policy developments will influence the oil market. E-mail alerts offer a short summary of the event/development as it happens, together with any implication for balances and our market outlook. Example topics include Brent spreads, geopolitical flare-ups, OPEC meeting summaries, policy and subsidy changes and the fallout from IAEA announcements.

 

 

     Europe, Middle East and Africa Quarterly

The Europe, Middle East and Africa Quarterly offers a quarterly detailed view on the region. The report provides comprehensive analysis of the EMEA region, examining key topics in depth and providing a detailed guide to regional supply, demand, trade flows and downstream capacity. The report provides a complete picture of the inter-connectedness of the EMEA region in terms of crude and product flows, investment and geopolitical impacts. Focus pieces delve into key issues that will impact the market in the near and medium term.  

 

     North America Quarterly

The North America Quarterly covers all important aspects of the region, with a particular focus on the implications for shale gas and oil. Regular sections include updates on takeaway capacity, Cushing balances and their impact on WTI, regulatory changes, technological developments in the field of shale, regional price and grade differentials and regional refinery updates. Each quarter, focus pieces delve into key issues impacting the market. This publication is designed to be the most comprehensive guide to the North American oil markets.

 

     Asia Pacific Quarterly

The Asia Pacific Quarterly provides detailed analysis of Asian crude and product markets along with the economic and political trends shaping demand and supply patterns in the region. Each quarter, focus pieces delve into key issues that will impact the market in the near and medium term. Regular sections provide a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic and political dynamics; developments in the downstream and their implications for crude and product trade flows, SPR builds, refinery runs and yields, as well as the outlook for the region’s crude oil production.

 

     In Focus

In Focus pieces explore an individual topic in detail, comprehensively examining its implications for the market. In Focus reports contain detailed analysis of the topic alongside extensive data. Examples include detailed analysis of US shale oil, the marginal cost of production, forecasts for oil balances in the coming years, the changing world of crude spreads, the outlook for oil products like diesel and fuel oil, and the future development of key consumer countries like China.

 

Key Themes – Monthly Slideshow

Key Themes provides Energy Aspect’s outlook for the development of crude oil and oil products markets in a pdf slideshow format. Easy to assimilate and available for use by clients in internal and external presentations (with due accreditation to Energy Aspects), this slideshow is published on a monthly basis.

 

 

 

Access to analysts

Call, email, IM, meet. Contact our analysts for rapid response – explanations of analysis and comment requests. Attend our regularly held functions, events and meetings.

Global arbs and trade flows service

The Global arbs and trade flows service, a partnership between Energy Aspects and the leading cargo-tracking provider Kpler, provides in-depth analysis of current dynamics in the physical oil market, utilising underlying data on global oil exports and imports from Kpler and Energy Aspects’ suite of key fundamentals and global oil prices.

The service provides insights into developing trends in the physical oil market, assessing how changes to fundamentals and arbs will shape crude flows in the coming months. The service, using Energy Aspects’ proprietary global arbitrage models, builds upon prompt and historical cargo flow data from Kpler to forecast forward flows on key routes. The service includes historical and forecast data for flows by country in the key regions of Asia Pacific, North America, FSU, Latin America, the North Sea, the Mediterranean, the Middle East and West Africa.


The Global arbs and trade flows service can be broken down into four key products:
- Outlook monthly summary report
- The regional overview monthly offering granular analysis on developments in key regions
- Market alerts
- Data service


Monthly summary:
The summary report condenses the most recent market insights into key digestible threads, starting with an overview of the global market and then splitting out into key developments in both arbs and flows in the sweet and sour markets.


Regional report:
The regional section of the monthly report provides much more in-depth insights into physical oil movements across the key exporting and consuming regions of the world. The report is divided into two broader sections.


The first is focussed on cargo loadings, reviewing key developments in exports over the given month with a look ahead to how both volumes and destinations may evolve over the next few months. This section is split into narrower subsections covering OPEC and Non-OPEC separately with each of these sections narrowing in on key countries/regions within the group (e.g. Saudi Arabia, North Sea, West Africa).


These subsections will incorporate varied analysis, key charts and tables (as shown below) that display the overall volume from each of the key regions and a detailed breakdown of the final destinations for these cargoes. These tables also highlight our near-term predictions for flows between each of the regions, with the projections based upon our projections for global import/export balances and current and projected price differentials.


Market alerts:
As with other core service lines, the Global arbs and trade flows service will include a variety of timely market alerts providing rapid insight into key events as they unfold and assessing the potential impact on physical crude flows.


For instance, production or refinery outages can have important impacts on the availability of crude into the international market, be it additional Mexican sours due to a series of planned and unplanned outages across Pemex’s refining fleet or a loss of Libyan supplies due to political disruptions at domestic terminals and oil fields. Alerts for such events would typically assess the impact of such changes on regional supplies, pricing and assess the impact on other flows (e.g. backing out of other supplies or where might replacement barrels be found).


Data service:
The data service provides an easy access point to some of the key statistics and pricing underpinning the broader analysis within the Global arbs and trade Flows service.


As with the main outlook pieces, the data will be subdivided into three key categories:


• Pricing/arbs
Landed prices for a range of key grades (split between sweets and sours) in regions such as the USGC, NWE, Med and Asia to help users ascertain which grades are most competitive on a pure pricing basis.


• Loadings/exports
Time series of key region to region flows as shown in earlier table. Monthly data will extend from January 2013 through to current month and will also include Energy Aspect’s forecasts for the coming six months.


• Arrivals/imports
Country-by-country customs data for a host of different countries across the globe. Data will similarly extend from January 2013 to the latest publication date. This will not incorporate projections however.

 


How to order
To order this new service from Energy Aspects please contact your account representative or email sales@energyaspects.com


The Global arbs and trade flows service is only available to companies that also subscribe to Energy Aspects’ Crude oil service.