OPEC oil data - Oct 2015

Published at 10:35 13 Nov 2015 by . Last edited 09:30 20 Apr 2016.

According to the third party estimates that Energy Aspects collects, OPEC production fell m/m by 0.17 mb/d to 31.52 mb/d in October, which was higher y/y by 0.90 mb/d. Only Bloomberg figures showed a m/m increase. Energy Aspects estimates place output lower m/m by 60 thousand b/d at 31.46 mb/d. Iraqi production fell the most, down by 0.15 mb/d to 4.02 mb/d as Basra loading disruptions late in the month forced some production to be shut-in. We place the decline at 0.13 mb/d, which takes Iraqi production to 3.99 mb/d, below 4 mb/d for the first time since May. Iraqi government data show Basra loadings fell m/m by 0.32 mb/d, which is in sharp contrast to the 0.66 mb/d m/m increase forecast by the loading programme and led to a 96 thousand b/d decline in southern production. Kurdish exports were also lower m/m, with lower investment by IOCs already starting to weigh on production levels. According to third parties, Saudi output fell m/m by 60 thousand b/d to 10.18 mb/d, but official communication shows a 50 thousand b/d increase to 10.28 mb/d. The increase likely reflects rising exports to the US, and now also Europe, with Saudi Arabia selling crude for the first time to many European refineries. Elsewhere, Kuwaiti output was lower m/m by 30 thousand b/d at 2.72 mb/d due to maintenance work on a gathering station (EA estimate: -70 thousand b/d m/m to 2.68 mb/d). Iranian production fell by 10 thousand b/d to 2.84 mb/d according to third parties, as export volumes remained subdued; we place Iranian production lower m/m by 30 thousand b/d at 2.80 mb/d. Gains in Libya and Nigeria only partially offset these losses. In Nigeria, production rose m/m by 30 thousand b/d to 1.96 mb/d due to the recent start-up of the 65 thousand b/d Erha North Phase 2 project and fewer force majeures. Libyan output rose by 50 thousand b/d to 0.42 mb/d after the 0.15 mb/d Zueitina terminal reopened in early October, allowing associated fields to resume operations. However, the terminal shut again at the start of November, so the improvement will once again be short-lived.

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