OPEC oil data – May 2014

Published at 14:23 16 Jun 2014 by . Last edited 11:17 22 Aug 2019.

The third party estimates collected by Energy Aspects pegged May OPEC supplies at 29.90 mb/d, higher m/m by 0.17 mb/d, but still lower y/y. This was slightly higher than our estimates of 29.72 mb/d, although similar m/m by 0.16 mb/d. The two main sources of increase were Saudi Arabia and Angola, which raised output by 70 and 60 thousand b/d respectively (Energy Aspects estimates: 50 and 80 thousand b/d to 9.71 mb/d and 1.63 mb/d). While the Kingdom raised its output due to higher summer demand (a trend we expect to continue in the coming months, taking output to 10.5 mb/d), Angola's output rise was due to the completion of maintenance at the Plutonio fields. Iraqi output increased m/m by 40 thousand b/d to nearly 3.3 mb/d (Energy Aspects: 30 thousand b/d rise to 3.2 mb/d, with the Iraqi ministry pegging output at 3.117 mb/d), on higher output from the south. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline remained offline through May, and the deteriorating security situation may prevent it returning soon. Although the southern fields are not directly at risk from the recent Sunni insurgency, any prolonged closure of the Baiji refinery which results in the shut-in of northern and western fields poses some downside risk to our below consensus growth forecast of 0.2 mb/d. Iranian output, however, edged slightly lower m/m as exports eased on lower uptake by China and India. Meanwhile, although third party estimates see Libyan output lower m/m, we peg it higher by 20 thousand b/d at 0.18 mb/d. The first half of the month saw Sarir and Mesla and the temporary restart of El Feel and Wafa take output to 0.28 mb/d. However, since then, output fell to lows of 0.13 mb/d as the stand-off between the interim government and the protestors intensified. Mid-June has seen the restart of the El Feel, taking output to 0.22 mb/d. Nigerian output remained below 2 mb/d for the 15th straight month. With Shell declaring force majeure on the 40 thousand b/d EA field in early June, output is unlikely to recover soon.

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