OPEC oil data - Mar 2016

Published at 09:21 14 Apr 2016 by . Last edited 11:17 22 Aug 2019.

According to the third party estimates that Energy Aspects collects, OPEC production averaged 32.35 mb/d in March, declining m/m by 30 thousand b/d, with y/y growth falling to 0.79 mb/d, the first sub 1 mb/d increase in five months. The UAE led the m/m declines, down by 0.11 mb/d to 2.72 mb/d, due to heavy maintenance on the Murban field that is due to finish in April. Libyan output also fell, down by 40 thousand b/d to 0.33 mb/d, with exports averaging just 0.20 mb/d during March according to tanker tracking. The UN-backed unity government is trying to establish itself in Tripoli, but this has yet to lead to any terminals or fields restarting and self-titled Islamic State has carried out more attacks in April. Third party estimates also show Nigerian output declining m/m for the second month, by 50 thousand b/d to 1.75 mb/d (EA estimate: -0.12 mb/d m/m to 1.62 mb/d). Forcados liftings remain under force majeure after a militant attack in mid-February. The pipeline will now be shut until June and close to 0.3 mb/d of production is affected. Third parties see Venezuelan production falling m/m by 20 thousand b/d to 2.35 mb/d in March (EA: -0.16 mb/d to 2.10 mb/d). Power shortages linked to critical water levels at the Guri dam, upgrader maintenance, and loading problems at the TAEJ terminal, all started to impact production in February, worsening in March. We understand some loadings are delayed by 20 days and crude quality of exports has deteriorated due to the loss of upgrader capacity. Levels at the Guri dam are just 2 metres above the minimum level needed for turbines to function. Saudi production fell marginally m/m to 10.14 mb/d; maintenance in May is likely to push supplies lower. Iranian production rose m/m by another 0.11 mb/d to 3.21 mb/d as the post-sanctions ramp-up continues, although we believe exports are rising faster than underlying production as inventories are being drawn down. Iraqi output is reportedly up m/m by 30 thousand b/d to 4.23 mb/d (EA: -40 thousand b/d to 4.10 mb/d) after the Kurdish export pipeline restarted mid-month, though Baghdad’s refusal to allow oil from fields it controls near Kirkuk onto the pipeline is reducing northern exports by 0.10-0.15 mb/d.

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