OPEC oil data – Jan 2016

According to the third party estimates that Energy Aspects collects, OPEC production, which now includes Indonesia, rose m/m by 0.15 mb/d to 32.38 mb/d in January. Iran led the increases, up by 60 thousand b/d to 2.93 mb/d as sanctions relief began mid-month allowing the ramp-up of existing fields and the start of South Pars Phases 15 & 16. Production may also have started at the 75 thousand b/d North Azadegan Phase 1, although it is only due to be inaugurated by early March. Despite numerous headlines about new supply deals, buyers still face various legal issues, such as securing shipping insurance, if they purchase from Iran, tempering the speed of recovery. Meanwhile in January, Saudi Arabia raised output by a similar 50 thousand b/d to 10.18 mb/d according to third parties, while direct communication showed an 86 thousand b/d gain to 10.23 mb/d. February output may see some reduction due to field maintenance, but Saudi Arabia is clearly not ready to give up market share as Iranian production rises, with a particular focus on Europe. With Iraq also maintaining output near record levels (up by 10 thousand b/d to 4.35 mb/d according to third parties, 10 thousand b/d down to 4.33 mb/d on our estimates), ongoing efforts to reach some sort of coordinated agreement, even just to ‘freeze’ current production levels, will prove challenging given the positions of the three largest OPEC producers. Elsewhere, Kuwaiti production rose by 40 thousand b/d to 2.77 mb/d as investment starts to bear fruit (EA estimate is already at 2.85 mb/d) and Nigerian output recovered by 30 thousand b/d as export disruptions eased, despite militant attacks on pipelines in the Niger Delta mid-month. Only partly offsetting these gains, Angolan output fell m/m by 50 thousand b/d to 1.74 mb/d, and Qatari production fell m/m by over 10 thousand b/d to 0.64 mb/d, likely due to maintenance in both cases. Algeria and Venezuela both registered declines of over 10 thousand b/d. We expect declines to pick up this year due to low investment in several OPEC countries.