OPEC oil data - Feb 2016

Published at 09:00 16 Mar 2016 by . Last edited 11:17 22 Aug 2019.

According to third party estimates collected by Energy Aspects, OPEC production fell m/m by 0.19 mb/d to 32.37 mb/d in February. Unplanned outages in Iraq and Nigeria disrupted 0.85 mb/d of exports from mid-month and forced production to be shut-in. In Iraq, the Kurdish pipeline was attacked on the Turkish side of the border on 17 February, which reduced Kurdish February exports to an average of 0.35 mb/d and left Iraqi output lower m/m by 0.19 mb/d at 4.23 mb/d according to third parties (EA estimate: -0.21 mb/d at 4.14 mb/d). Southern Iraqi exports remain robust, but slipped m/m by 60 thousand b/d due to bad weather. The pipeline restarted on 11 March, although at least 0.15 mb/d remains disrupted as Baghdad has not allowed flows from the disputed Kirkuk field onto the pipeline to resume. We anticipate further issues with the pipeline in the coming months. Meanwhile, Niger Delta militants attacked a sub-sea section of the Forcados pipeline in mid-February, forcing Shell to declare a force majeure and cutting Nigerian output m/m by 0.10 mb/d to 1.79 mb/d. Repairs will reportedly take until mid-May, so we expect disruptions to rise to around 0.3 mb/d in March and April. Planned Murban maintenance in the UAE reduced 40 thousand b/d to 2.84 mb/d according to third parties, although we believe closer to 0.15 mb/d was affected. The planned works continue into April. Libyan output slipped m/m by 10 thousand b/d to 0.36 mb/d in February as exports fell below 0.25 mb/d according to tanker tracking data. Partially offsetting these losses, third parties estimate Iranian production rose m/m by 0.13 mb/d to 3.06 mb/d (EA estimates: +90 thousand b/d to 3.00 mb/d) as exports to Europe and Asia start to increase. Third parties believe Venezuelan output remained flat m/m at 2.39 mb/d, but tanker tracking and estimates of domestic runs suggest output has started to decline (EA estimates: -30 thousand b/d to 2.31 mb/d). Finally, Saudi output was lower m/m by 20 thousand b/d according to third parties, although direct communication indicates volumes remained broadly flat m/m at 10.22 mb/d.

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