OPEC oil data - Dec 2015

Published at 10:03 19 Jan 2016 by . Last edited 09:30 20 Apr 2016.

According to the third party estimates that Energy Aspects collects, OPEC output averaged 31.64 mb/d in December, lower m/m by around 90 thousand b/d. This figure excludes Indonesia, which was readmitted from 1 January 2016. Across 2015, OPEC output averaged 31.30 mb/d, up y/y by 1.12 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq contributing 92% of that increase. In December, Saudi Arabia led the declines, with output falling m/m by 60 thousand b/d to 10.14 mb/d according to third parties. Direct communication also reported production at 10.14 mb/d. Saudi crude exports probably remained strong, following a seven-month high of 7.7 mb/d, hit in November. Nigeria was next in line, with production falling by 30 thousand b/d to 1.84 mb/d as disruptions in the Niger Delta increased. A crackdown on corruption by the Buhari government has provoked more attacks on oil pipelines and facilities in January, which may mean more disruptions in the months ahead. The Brass River stream remains under force majeure. Libya has also seen attacks by the self-titled Islamic State against terminals and pipelines in the eastern Sirte basin, although these facilities were already shut-in. In December, Libyan production was flat m/m at 0.38 mb/d according to third parties (EA estimates: -10 thousand b/d to 0.37 mb/d). Meanwhile, Iraqi production fell m/m by 20 thousand b/d to 4.30 mb/d according to third parties (EA estimates: -30 thousand b/d to 4.20 mb/d). Exports from southern Iraq fell m/m by 0.14 mb/d, albeit to a still high 3.22 mb/d, as November volumes were boosted by oil that was placed in storage during weather-related loading disruptions in late October, while Kurdish exports fell m/m by 17 thousand b/d. Finally, Iran’s output fell marginally m/m to 2.84 mb/d according to third parties, as exports have remained subdued for several months. Following the nuclear deal reaching Implementation Day in mid-January, Iranian officials claim output will rapidly rise by 0.5 mb/d, but we expect the recovery to be more gradual due to technical and marketing challenges, rising by only 0.25-0.4 mb/d.

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