OPEC oil data – August 2015

Published at 10:41 11 Sep 2015 by . Last edited 11:17 22 Aug 2019.

According to the third-party estimates that Energy Aspects collects, OPEC production fell m/m by 60 thousand b/d to 31.66 mb/d in August (EA estimates: 31.49 mb/d, down by 0.22 mb/d m/m). The declines were led by Iraq, lower m/m by 70 thousand b/d to 4.08 mb/d, while our own estimates have it declining by the same amount to 4.06 mb/d. Kurdish pipeline exports fell m/m by 45 thousand b/d, due to a bombing in late July and smaller disruptions in August. Southern exports fell by a similar amount. This fits our view that the focus for Iraq will shift to maintaining current production levels rather than delivering further growth, given the investment cutbacks. Saudi production fell m/m by 30 thousand b/d to 10.39 mb/d according to third parties. Official communications report a decline of 0.1 mb/d to 10.26 mb/d, with volumes supplied to the market at 10.18 mb/d, indicating Saudi stocks rose. The cut back in output was in response to lower demand for crude exports due to Asian run cuts and upcoming maintenance. As summer temperatures fade, we expect Saudi output to ease towards 10.1-10.2 mb/d in Q4 15. Meanwhile, third party numbers show Angolan August production dipping m/m by 30 thousand b/d to 1.75 mb/d (EA estimate: -50 thousand b/d to 1.74 mb/d) on planned field maintenance. Libyan production also slipped m/m by 30 thousand b/d to 0.36 mb/d, a six-month low, as technical issues weighed on output from Agoco’s fields and no progress was made resolving the disruptions plaguing the oil sector. These losses were only partially offset by gains elsewhere. Nigerian output rose m/m by 40 thousand b/d to 1.89 mb/d and UAE production rose by 30 thousand b/d to 2.87 mb/d, a new record high due to gains from the offshore Upper Zakum field. Third party estimates show Algerian output flat m/m at 1.11 mb/d, but the 20 thousand b/d Bir Seba and 12 thousand b/d Bir el-Msana fields started-up at the beginning of August, so we believe output rose by a small 10 thousand b/d.

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