OPEC oil data – April 2014

Published at 08:46 15 May 2014 by . Last edited 11:17 22 Aug 2019.

The third party estimates collected by Energy Aspects pegged April OPEC supplies at 29.71 mb/d, higher m/m by around 60 thousand b/d but lower y/y by 0.97 mb/d. This compares to our estimates of 29.56 mb/d, higher m/m by 0.11 mb/d. The primary difference between third party and our baseline estimates lies in Nigeria, where we peg output at below 1.8 mb/d (third party: 1.95 mb/d, unchanged m/m) as sabotage weighed on Forcados and Bonny Light output. In terms of divergence in growth rates, we peg Saudi Arabian output at 9.66 mb/d, in line with official estimates (third party: 9.62 mb/d), higher m/m by 70 thousand b/d. The other difference is Angolan production, where we peg the m/m increase at 80 thousand b/d to 1.53 mb/d, as maintenance work was completed. Third party estimates have an increase of 40 thousand b/d as the decline in March output was not fully captured. Secondary estimates left Iraq's output broadly constant m/m at 3.24 mb/d, although our estimates were lower at 3.17 mb/d, down marginally m/m. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline was offline for the month, although the Kurds pumped a limited amount of crude to Ceyhan through their new pipeline starting on 28 April. Exports from Iraq's southern terminals rose m/m by 90 thousand b/d, but with official statistics reporting that output fell marginally m/m, the increase came from drawing on oil in storage. Libyan output declined to 0.16 mb/d on our estimate, down m/m by 20 thousand b/d (third party: lower by 20 thousand b/d m/m but to 0.22 mb/d), the lowest since August 2011. Despite a deal in early April to re-open four Eastern terminals, the restart of fields has been slow. Libyan output averaged 0.12 mb/d over the first half of the April, before the Sarir and Mesla fields started to ramp up (now at 0.14 mb/d combined). May has seen Libya's output continue to see-saw as three fields near the Brega terminal were shut by protests, before the El Feel and Wafa field restarted as protests on pipelines in western Libya were lifted. The key will now be whether the 0.3 mb/d Sharara field restarts and for how long.

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