OPEC oil data - Apr 2016

Published at 11:19 16 May 2016 by . Last edited 11:17 22 Aug 2019.

According to the third party estimates that Energy Aspects collects, OPEC production rose m/m by 0.31 mb/d to 32.60 mb/d in April, up y/y by 0.73 mb/d. Our estimates show a 0.32 mb/d m/m increase to 32.17 mb/d. Third parties put Iranian production at 3.45 mb/d, up m/m by 0.25 mb/d as exports rose to almost 2 mb/d in April. But much of the surge is coming from storage and due to lower refinery runs, with 0.35 mb/d of capacity offline between mid-April and late-May, which has freed up crude for exports (EA estimate: output up m/m by 0.1 mb/d, to 3.25 mb/d). Meanwhile, Iraqi production rebounded m/m by 0.16 mb/d to 4.36 mb/d as the Kurdish export pipeline was open all month. But flows are still down by around 0.1 mb/d from January levels because of political disputes. Southern exports were strong in April, at 3.36 mb/d. UAE output also recovered m/m by 80 thousand b/d to 2.80 mb/d, as Murban maintenance ended. Partially offsetting the gains, Kuwaiti production fell m/m by 0.13 mb/d to 2.65 mb/d due to the three-day workers strike. Nigerian output fell by 50 thousand b/d to 1.68 mb/d, the lowest level on record—the situation has worsened dramatically in May, with the 90 thousand b/d Okan field shutting and force majeure declared on Bonny Light and Qua Iboe. As of mid-May, we estimate output is down to 1 mb/d. In Libya, where output was flat m/m in April at 0.33 mb/d, disruptions are also rising. The eastern government has blockaded the 0.14 mb/d Hariga terminal, cutting output to 0.19 mb/d by mid-May, although domestic transfers may soon be permitted. Third parties show a 20 thousand b/d m/m decline in Venezuelan output to 2.35 mb/d in April, which we believe understates the impact of power outages and service companies reducing activities (EA: 40 thousand b/d lower m/m at 2.10 mb/d). Finally, third parties have Saudi output flat at 10.16 mb/d, while direct communication showed a 38 thousand b/d m/m rise to 10.26 mb/d. Oil rig counts fell in April and maintenance affects 0.4 mb/d of production in May, so output is not about to rise to 11 mb/d or above.

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