Mexican liquids production fell in March to 2.87 mb/d, lower y/y by 66 thousand b/d. Crude output was at 2.52 mb/d, its lowest level since November 2010, lower y/y by 37 thousand b/d, within which light crude output was pegged at 0.84 mb/d, flat y/y. Pemex expects to boost its crude output by 0.5 mb/d by 2018, an 18% increase compared to 2012. A number of smaller hydrocarbon accumulations will be critical in offsetting recent decline at older assets such as Cantarell from new developments such as the Tsimin- Xux complex. This, however, will have implications for the country's crude slate, as declining heavy production at the Cantarell basin but growing light crude at the Chicontepec fields and super light crude at the Tsimin-Xux offshore complex make the marginal barrel lighter.
March exports experienced a large 0.18 mb/d y/y decline in March to 1.10 mb/d, the lowest levels since August 2009, as exports to the US fell y/y by 0.24 mb/d, and the trend of exporting to the Far East continued, higher y/y by 0.12 mb/d at 0.18 mb/d. Mexican oil demand fell to its lowest levels since October 2011 at 1.72 mb/d, lower y/y by 0.12 mb/d as demand for fuel oil and gasoline fell by 41 thousand b/d, at 0.14 and 0.78 mb/d respectively. The extreme weakness reverses a trend seen in the past six months where demand has been higher on average by almost 80 thousand b/d. Elsewhere, refinery runs eased marginally m/m although remained higher y/y by 43 thousand b/d, supported by diesel output which climbed back above 0.3 mb/d at 0.31 mb/d, higher y/y by 23 thousand b/d. Total product imports eased to 0.58 mb/d, lower y/y by 0.17 mb/d as gasoline imports fell y/y by 0.18 mb/d.