This report includes our forecast for the next two EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Reports. We also include a sample of our weekly supply-demand balances, regional flow model, and our short-term data in the attached document. Our forecast record can be found on page 9.
Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 18 Oct) – EA Final Estimate: +89 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 89 bcf in the reference week. Res-com demand surged by 3.6 bcf/d w/w due to a 50% w/w jump in national gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs). Feedgas to LNG terminals also grew w/w, by 0.6 bcf/d, after Cove Point returned from three weeks of scheduled maintenance on 14 October. Total feedgas demand would likely have been higher were it not for a 0.3 bcf/d w/w decline in takes at Corpus Christi after an unforeseen flaring event cut flows to the terminal between 14–17 October.
- Total Lower 48 output increased by 0.5 bcf/d w/w, which helped lift the injection rate. Appalachia accounted for 0.3 bcf/d of the w/w gains in a quiet week of maintenance for the region, with Permian and Haynesville receipts also adding 0.1 bcf/d w/w.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 25 Oct) – EA Estimate: +87 bcf
- We forecast the injection rate will stay broadly flat w/w with a projected build of 87 bcf. National GWHDDs are forecast to decline by over 5% w/w, depressing res-com demand by 0.5 bcf/d w/w.
- The impact of lost heating demand on weekly balances will be offset by a 0.7 bcf/d w/w rise in power burn. Hot weather in California will boost power demand, as temperatures in Los Angeles are forecast to top 95°F late in the week (20°F above historical norms).
- Production is on pace to shoot up by 0.8 bcf/d w/w, with the growth spread across the country. Appalachia receipts are on track to again increase by 0.3 bcf/d w/w. South Texas will account for another 0.3 bcf/d in w/w gains. Several other basins will see output expand by 0.1 bcf/d w/w each, including the Denver-Julesburg, Haynesville, Permian, and the GoM, after Hurricane Nestor had no impact on production.
- San Juan outflows north are expected to be restricted by 0.2 bcf/d starting on 22 October due to maintenance on the Northwest Pipeline’s Vernal compressor station. The work is scheduled to last until 26 October.
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will rise by an additional 0.4 bcf/d w/w. The gains will be split between Corpus Christi, after its flaring incident ended late in the reference week, and Cove Point, which is on track to complete its first full maintenance-free week since mid-September.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|