Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 4 Oct) – EA Final Estimate: +101 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 101 bcf. While this represents a third consecutive triple-digit build, it is also 11 bcf lower w/w due to a 2.3 bcf/d uptick in total demand. Power burn grew by 1.5 bcf/d w/w on late-season surge of 5% w/w in population-weighted CDDs. Exports to Mexico rose by 0.2 bcf/d w/w on a combination of higher nominations on the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipe and reduced maintenance on the NET Mexico system.
- Lower 48 production gains of 0.7 bcf/d w/w offset some of the demand uplift. Observable Permian output rose by 0.3 bcf/d on new Gulf Coast Express volumes, while Gulf of Mexico output grew by 0.3 bcf/d w/w on Nautilus pipeline’s return to service after a week of maintenance.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 11 Oct) – EA Estimate: +115 bcf
- We project that the injection rate will spike to 115 bcf in the current week. Power burn is set to decline by 3.0 bcf/d w/w, with population-weighted CDDs forecast to crater by 50% w/w as the last vestiges of summer heat fade.
- Res-com demand jumped by 0.6 bcf/d w/w on the start of significant regional heating demand. The cold is centred in the Midwest and Rockies. Low temperatures are forecast to drop below 40°F in Chicago later in the week (10°F below historical norms), while lows in Denver are projected to sink below 20°F (25°F below historical norms) as an early season snowstorm is set to hit the region on 10 October.
- We project Lower 48 production will decline w/w for the first time since early September, by 0.4 bcf/d w/w. The driver here is Appalachia, where a 4 October force majeure on the Columbia Transmission network on its WB-5 line has offlined 0.2 bcf/d in flows. The outage coincides with planned Columbia maintenance on Line 1983’s Sherwood meter station cutting another 0.2 bcf/d in capacity from 8-14 October.
- Permian production is on pace to see 0.2 bcf/d of w/w growth, but this will be offset as East Texas and Gulf of Mexico receipts each decline by 0.1 bcf/d. Flows on the Mississippi Canyon pipeline in the Gulf dropped by 0.1 bcf/d d/d on 5 October to 0.3 bcf/d.
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will drop by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. Intake at Freeport has fallen by the same amount w/w amid unspecified mechanical problems reported on 1 October. The tanker Pan Americas arrived at Freeport on 30 September to load the facility’s third cargo, but it has yet to depart amid the issues.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|