US Department of Energy

Published at 16:34 2 Oct 2019 by

Extract from crude oil:

With refinery works in full swing, dragging refinery runs lower w/w by 0.5 mb/d to 16.0 mb/d, US crude stocks built by 3.1 mb to 422.6 mb, versus the five-year average build of 0.1 mb. The main builds were in PADDs 2 (+2.2 mb) and 5 (+1.1 mb). The bulk of the drop in runs occurred in PADD 3 (-0.4 mb/d w/w), where crude stocks drew by 0.8 mb despite a drop in exports to 2.9 mb/d. Lower crude production likely contributed to the draws amid still muted imports. We expect PADD 3 crude stocks to have declined by 3.9 mb in September, with EIA weeklies through to 27 September showing a 3.1 mb dip. We expect PADD 3 stocks to decline in October too (-3.3 mb) despite lower runs as we expect exports to pick up to 3.1 mb/d and imports to remain subdued.

Extract from oil products:

US gasoline inventories fell by 0.2 mb w/w to 230 mb as a 0.9 mb w/w draw on the USGC offset a 0.5 mb w/w build on the US East Coast. Refinery maintenance on the USGC is cutting regional gasoline production, leading to narrowing arbitrage earnings on movements from the USGC to the USEC on the Colonial pipe. USEC gasoline imports averaged over 0.84 mb/d in the week to 27 September, but this figure should trend lower in the coming weeks. With the transatlantic arb from Europe also closing as Saudi Arabian gasoline buying and European turnarounds have boosted European prices, exports to the USEC should decline, which will likely lead to draws in USEC stocks before runs recover at the end of the year. Turnaround activity on the USEC, which includes planned work at the Trainer refinery, will further reduce regional gasoline output.

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