The late release of our US demand and trade data review is due to the delay in the release of the EIA's June Petroleum Supply Monthly data.
US oil demand fell y/y by 0.1 mb/d to 20.60 mb/d in June, an 0.32 mb/d downward revision from the weekly EIA estimates—we had expected a similar 0.3 mb/d adjustment. Combined demand for the four main products fell by 45 thousand b/d y/y, led by gasoline.
US gasoline demand fell by 0.12 mb/d y/y to 9.67 mb/d in June. The weakness was widespread with demand falling across PADDs 1, 2 and 3 by 45 thousand b/d, 56 thousand b/d and 32 thousand b/d y/y respectively. US vehicle miles travelled fell by 0.2% m/m and were only 0.6% higher y/y as slumping consumer sentiment offset falling gasoline prices.
US distillate demand was mostly unchanged m/m from May’s Midwest-flooding induced weakness at 4.01 mb/d. June demand was just 16 thousand b/d higher y/y. The ISM manufacturing index fell by 0.4% m/m, to 51.7%, signalling continued, if slower, growth.The Freight Transportation Service Index) fell m/m but rose y/y by 1.3% in June.
US crude throughputs were 0.43 mb/d lower y/y at 17.23 mb/d (+0.51 mb/d m/m) in June. Offline CDU capacity increased by 0.32 mb/d y/y to 0.51 mb/d, leaving US operable capacity at 29.24 mb/d. Unplanned turnarounds increased by 0.26 mb/d y/y to 0.38 mb/d—81% of June offline capacity, driven by the PES outage.
US crude exports hit a record high in June, rising m/m by 0.26 mb/d to 3.16 mb/d, as offline CDU capacity dropped by 0.57 mb/d m/m. Asia led the gains, up by 0.30 mb/d m/m to 1.60 mb/d. Flows to South Korea increased by 0.27 mb/d to a record high of 0.61 mb/d, while flows to China rose by 44 thousand b/d to 0.29 mb/d—the highest since July 2018.