Russian oil production rose by 0.14 mb/d m/m to 11.29 mb/d in August (+0.1 mb/d y/y), as the production restrictions due to the Urals contamination eased as pipelines were cleared. This pushed output above Russia’s OPEC+ target of 11.19 mb/d by 0.1 mb/d. In August, Gazprom Neft’s 65 thousand b/d Prirazlomnoye field went offline for a four-week turnaround, which led to the suspension of Arco loadings. Gazprom Neft’s output fell m/m by 40 thousand b/d to 0.81 mb/d. Across Q4 19, we see Russian crude output averaging 11.24 mb/d.
Russian crude exports rose m/m by 0.1 mb/d in August to 5.13 mb/d as the Druzhba pipeline restarted, although exports from Ust-Luga were constrained at just 0.14 mb/d. Preliminary schedules peg Baltic and Black Sea exports at 2.1 mb/d in September, an 8% m/m rise. Baltic exports will rise by 11% m/m as Ust-Luga exports are set to rebound to 0.34 mb/d. Primorsk loadings are set to fall by 5% m/m but exports from Novorossiysk should be higher by 4% at 0.72 mb/d (split between 0.55 mb/d of Urals and 0.17 mb/d of Siberian Light cargoes).
Kazakh crude supply fell slightly m/m to 1.89 mb/d in July (+50 thousand b/d y/y). We expect a decline in output across August and September when Tengiz (1 August to 12 September) and Karachaganak (15 September to 13 October) undergo seasonal maintenance. Azerbaijan’s July crude and condensate output rose m/m by 10 thousand b/d to 0.78 mb/d (flat y/y). Field level data from BP indicated a steep 13% y/y decline across Q2 19, partly driven by maintenance.
FSU demand rose by 0.14 mb/d y/y to 5.08 mb/d in July, with growth picking up after a weak May and June. Final Russian data show oil demand rose by 50 thousand b/d y/y in June (versus 90 thousand b/d y/y in May). Fuel oil (+6 thousand b/d y/y) and gasoline (+17 thousand b/d y/y) led the growth in June.
FSU runs rose m/m by 0.3 mb/d to 6.9 mb/d in July (-0.2 mb/d y/y). The growth in runs was due to a 0.21 mb/d m/m fall in CDU works to 0.57 mb/d (+0.21 mb/d y/y). Notable works took place at Rosneft’s 0.15 mb/d Kuibyshev refinery from late May until 25 July, and there was month-long works on LUKOIL’s 0.11 mb/d CDU at its Perm facility ending 9 August. Runs have been further supported by the restart of the 0.18 mb/d Antipinsky refinery on 18 July.
Scheduled August diesel loadings from the Russian Baltic port of Primorsk fell to their lowest since October 2013, down y/y by 0.13 mb/d to 0.18 mb/d (-70 thousand b/d m/m), as two-month long works at Surgutneftegaz’s 0.26 mb/d Kirishi refinery ending in late September weighed. September loadings will remain low at 0.19 mb/d.