Mexico oil data – August 2019

Published at 12:17 25 Sep 2019 by

Users licensed for the data service can access our Mexico data

Mexican total liquids production fell by 0.12 mb/d y/y to 1.94 mb/d in August with crude output dropping by 0.11 mb/d y/y to 1.69 mb/d. Combined crude and condensate output rose m/m by 14 thousand b/d, however, as production from the Zaap field recovered. Further support came from the ramp-up of the 15 thousand b/d Mitzon field and the Ek and Balam heavy fields. Combined Ek and Balam crude output rose by 4 thousand b/d m/m in August and has increased by 11 thousand b/d y/y (34%) in the year to August. Separately, the National Hydrocarbons Commission recently approved the 16th of Pemex’s 20 priority fields. Our forecasts indicate that these fields will add 0.11 mb/d of crude and 30 thousand b/d of condensate in 2020, although this will not inflect Mexican crude and condensate output into y/y growth. We forecast a 20 thousand b/d y/y decline next year.

Crude exports in August fell by 99 thousand b/d y/y to 1.1 mb/d, driven by a decrease in exports to the US, by 0.17 mb/d y/y to 0.63 mb/d. Even as Mexico reduced the K-factor for Maya in September into the USGC, it was still unseasonably strong (+3.75 premium), keeping it uncompetitive. In August, refinery runs remained relatively flat y/y, at 0.62 mb/d. Oil demand was up by 40 thousand b/d y/y to 1.75 mb/d in August, driven by a surge in LPG consumption (+63 thousand b/d y/y). However, diesel demand was down by 17 thousand b/d to 0.39 mb/d. Total product imports fell by 89 thousand b/d y/y in August, to 1.1 mb/d, as gasoline imports dropped by 54 thousand b/d y/y to 0.56 mb/d. Mexican gasoline inventories (excluding refinery stocks) rose y/y by 3.2 mb to 7.3 mb in the week ending in 30 August after hitting a record high in the week ending in 9 August (+4.1 mb y/y).

 

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