Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 13 Sep) – EA Final Estimate: +79 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 79 bcf. Gas consumption for power increased slightly (+0.3 bcf/d w/w), amid mixed signals on generation overall. Total electricity demand was close to unchanged, with coal and wind rising to offset lower nuclear and some signals of reversed gas-to-coal switching. Falling production w/w will limit the national injection rate, with Lower 48 output slumping by 0.5 bcf/d w/w. Appalachia receipts were responsible for 0.3 bcf/d of that w/w decline, as TETCO inspections on Line 20 began on 10 September. The remaining 0.2 bcf/d in w/w production losses came from the Rockies, after a late week drop in flows to zero at Colorado Interstate’s 0.5 bcf/d Lancaster meter station.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 20 Sep) – EA Estimate: +81 bcf
- We forecast the injection rate will be 81 bcf in the current week. The most intense heat is forecast to fade—weekly high temperatures in Chicago are set to drop below 80°F this week after reaching the low 90s°F last week—causing national power burn to fall by 0.8 bcf/d w/w.
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will rise by 0.6 bcf/d w/w to offset some of the lost demand, after Sabine Pass T5 returned to service on 12 September after 10 days of maintenance. Meanwhile, flows to Cameron LNG are on pace to be flat w/w at 0.3 bcf/d, despite a 13 September force majeure caused by an issue with a compressor at the terminal.
- Nominations on Valley Crossing and Sur de Texas-Tuxpan (SdT) for today (17 September) show flows of 0.6 bcf/d on both pipelines. However, our projection for exports to Mexico is up just 0.3 bcf/d w/w, until we see further confirmation of the sharp jump. Two tendered cargoes are to arrive at Altamira in the next eight days while sendout remains in-line with the monthly average (0.4-0.5 bcf/d). There are no reported volumes into SISTRANGAS at the 0.5 bcf/d Monte Grande connection with SdT for 17 September. We expect a gradual ramp-up in flows starting in October, though this week’s Mexican trade figure contains risk on the reported nominations.
- Production is on pace to be flat w/w at 90.5 bcf/d. Appalachia receipts of 32.4 bcf/d are off by just 50 mmcf/d w/w as TETCO continues its Northeast inspections, while SCOOP/STACK volumes are set to drop by 0.2 bcf/d w/w after a 13-17 September force majeure on NGPL’s Segment 11.
- Flow data from the Permian likewise points to flat output w/w, even as Gulf Coast Express (GCX) moves towards full service on 20 September and sees growing initial volumes. Current Waha cash prices above $1.50/mmbtu, well north of August’s average of $0.92/mmbtu, indicate that GCX is likely taking more flows, boosting Permian production w/w above what can be seen in flow data.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|