Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 6 Sep) – EA Final Estimate: +84 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 84 bcf. Supply gains drove the injection rate higher w/w. Total Lower 48 output grew by 0.3 bcf/d w/w, thanks to 0.2 bcf/d in Appalachia growth w/w and Bakken gains of 0.1 bcf/d w/w (to a new regional record of 2.0 bcf/d). Net imports from Canada also jumped, by 0.5 bcf/d w/w, as maintenance on Westcoast Energy’s T-South pipeline abated in late August, allowing for higher receipts at the Sumas border point.
- Demand was more static w/w, growing by just 0.3 bcf/d. This masks the movement of individual sectors though, as power burn’s 1.4 bcf/d w/w growth was offset by a 1.0 bcf/d w/w drop in industrial gas demand (due to the Labor Day holiday on 2 September) and a 0.4 bcf/d drop in LNG feedgas demand (as Sabine Pass T5 went offline for scheduled maintenance).
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 13 Sep) – EA Estimate: +80 bcf
- A late burst of summer heat will constrain the injection rate in the current week. We project an injection of 80 bcf. National population-weighted CDDs are forecast to jump by 5% w/w, which will lead to a 0.8 bcf/d w/w increase in power burn. The heat is particularly acute in the Midwest, with high Chicago temperatures close to 90°F, 10°F above the historical average.
- One area that will actually see more moderate weather is the Pacific. Forecast highs in Los Angeles this week near 80°F are slightly below historical norms. This will help the Pacific region rebound from the counter-seasonal withdrawals seen in the previous two weeks—including SoCalGas enacting the protocol to draw from the beleaguered Aliso Canyon storage facility on 28 August and 6 September—to a projected 6 bcf injection in the current week.
- Production will not be able to help halt the sliding national injection rate, as total Lower 48 output is set to grow by just 0.1 bcf/d w/w. Growth of 0.2 bcf/d w/w in the South Central, according to our flow data, will offset a 0.1 bcf/d w/w decline in Appalachia volumes as TETCO conducts inspections on Line 20 that will hinder flows throughout points in the Northeast.
- We project pipeline exports to Mexico will be flat w/w at 5.5 bcf/d. The lack of movement comes despite the 5 September start of small volumes—less than 50 mmcf/d—on the Valley Crossing pipeline, which feeds the newly completed 2.6 bcf/d Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipe.
- LNG feegdas demand is on pace to fall by 0.4 bcf/d w/w, in the first full week of Sabine Pass T5 maintenance. Inflows to Corpus Christi are also on pace to shrink, by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 1.4 bcf/d, though this is still above the facility’s nameplate capacity of 1.3 bcf/d.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|