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Mexican total liquids production fell by 0.19 mb/d y/y to 1.90 mb/d in July, led by crude (-0.15 mb/d). Crude output was flat m/m at 1.67 mb/d, supported by the start of Eni’s 15 thousand b/d Mitzón 2 field on 30 June. Heavy production rose m/m by 7 thousand b/d and fell y/y by just 7 thousand b/d. Output at the extra-heavy Ayatsil field rose y/y by 28 thousand b/d but was offset by declines at the Maloob and Zaap fields, where supply fell y/y by a collective 53 thousand b/d. We expect Mexican crude output in Q3 19 to fall q/q by 20 thousand b/d amid maintenance at an FPSO operating in the Ku-Maloob-Zaap asset. Output in Q4 19 should pick up slightly (+5 thousand b/d q/q but still lower y/y), supported by the start of eight new fields which are part of Pemex’s 20 priority fields. By December, these fields should produce 10 thousand b/d.
Crude exports in July fell by 77 thousand b/d y/y to 1.1 mb/d as exports to the US dropped by 0.21 mb/d y/y to 0.58 mb/d. Refinery runs increased by 8 thousand b/d y/y to 0.64 mb/d in July, but Mexican refineries processed the lowest volume of crude in nearly three decades during H1 19. Refineries processed 0.58 mb/d on average in H1 19, a 9% decline y/y. Oil demand was up by 0.14 mb/d y/y to 1.48 mb/d, driven by LPG and gasoline consumption, which rose y/y by 57 thousand b/d and 43 thousand b/d respectively. While gasoline theft has been curbed, LPG fuel theft is on the rise. A leak on the Cactus-Tula-Guadalajara LPG pipeline, caused by fuel thieves, is currently being repaired. Total product imports dropped by 0.11 mb/d y/y, driven by a 0.1 mb/d y/y fall in gasoline imports. The decline in gasoline imports combined with higher domestic demand saw gasoline stocks drop by 0.12 mb during July to 7.3 mb for the week ending 2 August. Gasoline production rose by just 19 thousand b/d y/y, to 0.24 mb/d.