Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 23 Aug) – EA Final Estimate: +57 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 57 bcf. Demand and supply both rose w/w in almost equal measure (by 1.3 bcf/d and 1.1 bcf/d respectively). The main driver of the increase in demand was LNG feedgas, which grew by 1.0 bcf/d. Sabine Pass intake rose by 0.6 bcf/d w/w after maintenance affecting T3 and T4 ended the previous week, while Corpus Christi feedgas rose by another 0.3 bcf/d w/w. Power burn also edged up, by 0.5 bcf/d w/w to 40.2 bcf/d. The increase in total supply was split between Lower 48 output growth (+0.6 bcf/d w/w), led by a 0.4 bcf/d gain in Rockies’ receipts, and a rise in net imports from Canada (+0.5 bcf/d w/w).
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 30 Aug) – EA Estimate: +84 bcf
- The injection rate will shoot up to 84 bcf in the current week as gas power demand is set to decline by 5.1 bcf/d. National population-weighted CDDs are forecast to fall by 30% w/w as the Northeast and Midwest are forecast to have daily highs in the low 70s°F, 10°F below historical averages.
- LNG feedgas demand is on track to jump by 1.4 bcf/d w/w to an all-time high of 6.5 bcf/d. It will be the first week this August without maintenance at Cheniere’s trains, so flows will rise to Sabine Pass by 0.8 bcf/d w/w and to Corpus Christi by 0.5 bcf/d w/w. The rest of the w/w gains will be to Freeport, which hit a record intake of 0.2 bcf/d on 24 August as it completes repairs to a ruptured gasket while the tanker LNG Jurojin waits offshore to load the facility’s first commissioning cargo.
- Industrial gas demand is on pace to fall by 0.7 bcf/d w/w in advance of the long holiday weekend.
- We project total Lower 48 production growth will be limited to 0.1 bcf/d in the current week. Appalachia is on pace for 0.2 bcf/d of gains after Texas Eastern restored service to Line 25 on 26 August after the pipe was under a force majeure since an explosion on 1 August. Flows of 0.8 bcf/d returned to the Danville compressor station in Kentucky—just downstream of the site of the incident—since the repairs, roughly half the station’s capacity.
- Production losses of 0.1 bcf/d w/w in the Permian will offset some of the Appalachia uplift. NGPL declared a force majeure on 21 August on the Indian Basin Lateral in New Mexico, which has offlined 0.1 bcf/d in flows west from the Permian since. No end date for the outage has been set.
- We forecast net imports from Canada will drop by 0.7 bcf/d w/w to 4.4 bcf/d, the lowest reading since November 2018. Amid cool temperatures in the Northeast, flows through the Waddington border point flipped from 0.5 bcf/d in net imports to small net exports from the US on 24 August. US pipe exports also accelerated at the St. Clair crossing in Michigan due to low local US demand.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|