Lower 48 gas storage

Published at 19:32 27 Aug 2019 by

Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 23 Aug) – EA Final Estimate: +57 bcf

  • We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 57 bcf. Demand and supply both rose w/w in almost equal measure (by 1.3 bcf/d and 1.1 bcf/d respectively). The main driver of the increase in demand was LNG feedgas, which grew by 1.0 bcf/d. Sabine Pass intake rose by 0.6 bcf/d w/w after maintenance affecting T3 and T4 ended the previous week, while Corpus Christi feedgas rose by another 0.3 bcf/d w/w. Power burn also edged up, by 0.5 bcf/d w/w to 40.2 bcf/d. The increase in total supply was split between Lower 48 output growth (+0.6 bcf/d w/w), led by a 0.4 bcf/d gain in Rockies’ receipts, and a rise in net imports from Canada (+0.5 bcf/d w/w).

Next Thursday’s report (week ending 30 Aug) – EA Estimate: +84 bcf

  • The injection rate will shoot up to 84 bcf in the current week as gas power demand is set to decline by 5.1 bcf/d. National population-weighted CDDs are forecast to fall by 30% w/w as the Northeast and Midwest are forecast to have daily highs in the low 70s°F, 10°F below historical averages.
  • LNG feedgas demand is on track to jump by 1.4 bcf/d w/w to an all-time high of 6.5 bcf/d. It will be the first week this August without maintenance at Cheniere’s trains, so flows will rise to Sabine Pass by 0.8 bcf/d w/w and to Corpus Christi by 0.5 bcf/d w/w. The rest of the w/w gains will be to Freeport, which hit a record intake of 0.2 bcf/d on 24 August as it completes repairs to a ruptured gasket while the tanker LNG Jurojin waits offshore to load the facility’s first commissioning cargo.
  • Industrial gas demand is on pace to fall by 0.7 bcf/d w/w in advance of the long holiday weekend.
  • We project total Lower 48 production growth will be limited to 0.1 bcf/d in the current week. Appalachia is on pace for 0.2 bcf/d of gains after Texas Eastern restored service to Line 25 on 26 August after the pipe was under a force majeure since an explosion on 1 August. Flows of 0.8 bcf/d returned to the Danville compressor station in Kentucky—just downstream of the site of the incident—since the repairs, roughly half the station’s capacity.
  • Production losses of 0.1 bcf/d w/w in the Permian will offset some of the Appalachia uplift. NGPL declared a force majeure on 21 August on the Indian Basin Lateral in New Mexico, which has offlined 0.1 bcf/d in flows west from the Permian since. No end date for the outage has been set.
  • We forecast net imports from Canada will drop by 0.7 bcf/d w/w to 4.4 bcf/d, the lowest reading since November 2018. Amid cool temperatures in the Northeast, flows through the Waddington border point flipped from 0.5 bcf/d in net imports to small net exports from the US on 24 August. US pipe exports also accelerated at the St. Clair crossing in Michigan due to low local US demand.
Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf
Source: Energy Aspects
Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d
Source: Energy Aspects

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