Brazil oil data – May 2019

Published at 10:01 2 Jul 2019 by . Last edited 11:18 22 Aug 2019.

Users licensed for the data service can access our Brazil data.

Brazilian total liquids output increased y/y by 0.12 mb/d to 2.83 mb/d in May (the first gain in four months), led by crude production, which rose to a record 2.73 mb/d (+0.13 mb/d m/m). Pre-salt led the crude growth, rising to 1.67 mb/d (+0.2 mb/d y/y), driven by the Buzios field where output has doubled to 0.23 mb/d in the space of three months. Campos basin output recovered (+31 thousand b/d m/m) with declines moderating to 8% in May, having averaged 15% between February and April. Most notably, there was a 67 thousand b/d m/m recovery in Jubarte output, which rose to a two year high at 0.22 mb/d. Despite expecting post-salt declines to ease, we have revised our 2019 crude growth forecast lower, from 0.25 mb/d to 0.16 mb/d following a weak H1 19 (flat y/y). The revision was driven by a change in the production profile across all pre-salt systems (see E-mail alert: 26 June 2019). Crude exports rose y/y by 0.26 mb/d to 1.12 mb/d in May, but were lower m/m with bookings to China down by 47%. However, flows to the US increased by 22% m/m and are likely to stay supported by low USGC refinery maintenance.

Brazilian oil demand rose by 0.36 mb/d y/y to 2.36 mb/d in May. Distillate demand rose by 0.21 mb/d y/y to 0.97 mb/d, a significant increase driven by the truckers strike that depressed demand in May 2018.  Gasoline demand increased by 15 thousand b/d y/y to 0.64 mb/d, after 20 consecutive months of y/y reductions. Ethanol demand was up by 0.11 mb/d y/y to 0.38 mb/d, some 0.13 mb/d above the five-year average. Refinery runs fell by 0.13 mb/d y/y to 1.72 mb/d. Despite the y/y increase in gasoline demand in May, price incentives continue to push refiners to max distillate mode, as gasoline yields have fallen by 3.7 ppts since peaking at 26.7% in January 2018. In comparison, distillate yields have risen by 4.8 ppts.

Log in to download

Other Data review publications

Rig report

Published 1 day ago

No cover
Within this report you will be able to review the latest figures published by Baker Hughes by oil..

Read more

Norway oil data – Nov 2019

Published 2 days ago

2019-12 Oil - Data review - Norway oil data – Nov 2019 cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our Norway oil production data.Norwegian..

Read more

Key agency forecasts

Published 2 days ago

2019-12 Oil - Data review - Key agency forecasts cover
Key agencies published their forecasts this week. EIA published STEO on Tuesday, OPEC its MOMR ye..

Read more

OPEC oil data – Nov 2019

Published 2 days ago

2019-12 Oil - Data review - OPEC oil data – Nov 2019 cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our OPEC production data.We estimate OPEC producti..

Read more

US Department of Energy

Published 2 days ago

2019-12 Oil - Data review - US Department of Energy cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our US crude balances.Extract from..

Read more