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UK liquids production was higher m/m in May by 50 thousand b/d at 1.19 mb/d (+0.13 mb/d y/y), led by higher exports from the Kraken and Schiehallion FPSOs. According to the latest programme, BFOET loadings in June are set to drop m/m by 0.31 mb/d to 0.78 mb/d, the lowest level since December 2017, led by planned works at Ekofisk (though the field returned to operation ahead of schedule on 18 June). UK loadings recovered by 35 thousand b/d m/m in June to 0.5 mb/d. In June, Culzean gas field (operated by Total) started production and it is expected to produce 25 thousand b/d of condensate when it hits peak capacity in 2021. The July programme will see a material reduction in UK loadings led by Flotta (-70% m/m) and Forties (-10% m/m) as output is expected to be constrained by planned maintenance. A week-long outage at the Charlie platform is set for early August and a further week's work at Buzzard in September, both supportive of Forties differentials. Further works at Kraken, Heather-Broom and Scotly-Crathes will weigh on output over Q3 19, providing a floor to North Sea differentials ahead of heavy refinery maintenance (0.22 mb/d m/m) in September. UK liquids production is set to stabilise at 1.0 mb/d over the summer months prior to a marginal pick-up in October as maintenance season concludes.
UK oil demand decreased by 70 thousand b/d y/y in April to 1.50 mb/d, as demand for both gasoline (-20 thousand b/d) and diesel (-40 thousand b/d) came in weaker y/y. Runs were higher by 62 thousand b/d m/m in April at 1.08 mb/d (+7 thousand b/d y/y), and we expect it to have decreased in May as refinery maintenance increased m/m by 51 thousand b/d.