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Norwegian liquids production fell y/y in May by 58 thousand b/d to 1.60 mb/d (-0.13 mb/d m/m), continuing the decline trajectory seen so far in 2019. Since January, crude production has fallen by 0.21 mb/d, with liquids lower by 0.22 mb/d. May production came in lower despite the restart of the Maria field (18 thousand b/d) and the start-up of the Trestakk tie-back to Åsgard (20 thousand b/d). In addition to natural declines, May’s output was impacted by unplanned outages lasting 10 days at both the Oseberg and Statfjord platforms; Statfjord loadings were already planned to be lower m/m, with just three cargoes departing, while Oseberg loadings fell from a planned 0.13 mb/d to 74 thousand b/d. May seaborne exports were flat m/m, just shy of 0.9 mb/d, with more Norwegian oil going to Sweden as the Gothenburg ST1 refinery returned from maintenance.
June loadings are set to be their lowest in more than 10 years at 0.78 mb/d, dropping m/m by 0.42 mb/d. The bulk of this reduction (0.22 mb/d) is due to three weeks of routine maintenance at Ekofisk. Loadings at Oseberg, Grane, Statfjord and Troll are all planned to be more than 30 thousand b/d lower m/m, with the heavier Grane differential sustaining its $0.9/barrel premium to Dated. Statfjord loadings may also come in lower than expected after a supply vessel collided with the Statfjord A platform in early June, potentially delaying its restart and pushing the single planned loader from June 25–27 into July. July loadings will pick up by 0.33 mb/d m/m after the bulk of summer maintenance is completed and Snorre output is redirected from Statfjord to Gullfaks—the latter is running its largest loading programme in two years (0.18 mb/d).