India oil data – May 2019

Published at 08:47 24 Jun 2019 by . Last edited 11:18 22 Aug 2019.

Users licensed for the data service can access our India oil data.

India’s May oil demand rose y/y by just 2 thousand b/d to 4.68 mb/d (from an upwardly revised May 2018 baseline) despite strong growth in gasoline and diesel demand, due to continued weakness in other oils and bitumen (-8.4%). India’s economic growth continues to slow amid sharp cuts in government spending to meet the 2018–19 fiscal deficit target, election-related uncertainty in recent months, and regulatory changes in the auto sector that have resulted in sharp, one-off price increases. Gasoline demand growth is yet to slow, rising by 11.3% y/y in May, despite an extremely weak auto market, with demand likely boosted by restocking ahead of the general elections in late May. Passenger car sales fell by 20.6% y/y in May, their worst ever decline. Car manufacturers have brought forward scheduled shutdowns of their plants, reducing combined output by 20-25% in over May-June. This will weigh on naphtha. Diesel demand rose y/y by 2.3% with droughts offsetting weakness in on-road diesel demand as commercial vehicle sales fell by 10% y/y. Large parts of India are facing a water deficit due to the lowest pre-monsoon rainfall (1 March–31 May) in 65 years. At the end of May, more than 43.4% of the country was enduring a drought. Jet recovered marginally, rising by 5 thousand b/d y/y.

Refinery runs rose m/m by 44 thousand b/d in May to 5.10 mb/d (-0.16 mb/d y/y) led by a 53 thousand b/d m/m fall in CDU works. MRPL’s 0.3 mb/d Mangalore refinery was shut, initially due to unplanned works and then due to water shortages through early June. June runs will fall m/m due to month-long works at the 0.33 mb/d CDU at Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery from 20 June. Crude imports fell back to 4.5 mb/d, but still low runs meant crude stocks rose marginally.

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