Extract from demand:
European oil demand fell by 0.12 mb/d y/y to 15.14 mb/d in April despite support from the later timing of Easter this year compared to 2018 and colder weather. Demand across the EU-5 came in lower y/y, except for France (+21 thousand b/d y/y) and Spain (+14 thousand b/d y/y). The fall was led by decreases in the UK (-0.16 mb/d y/y) and Italy (-0.14 mb/d y/y). Demand in peripheral Europe rose by 0.20 mb/d y/y, with Turkish demand up by 32 thousand b/d y/y. However, given recent trends where German demand is revised higher systematically, we expect the same to happen to April figures, and demand was likely flat y/y. Indeed, overall March European demand was revised higher by 0.23 mb/d to show y/y declines of 0.49 mb/d, with Q1 19 demand down by 0.14 mb/d versus last month’s 0.23 mb/d.
Extract from refinery runs:
Refinery runs rose by 0.11 mb/d m/m to 12.58 mb/d in April (+0.33 mb/d y/y), as planned CDU maintenance fell by 0.10 mb/d m/m to 1.30 mb/d (-0.19 mb/d y/y). The m/m increase in runs was led by Italy (+0.21 mb/d m/m), as works at ENI’s 0.13 mb/d CDU at its Sannazzaro refinery were finalised mid-March. In Germany, maintenance grew m/m by 75 thousand b/d as PCK commenced work on two CDUs at its 0.22 mb/d Schwedt refinery. In the Netherlands, strike action following failed salary renegotiations at Shell’s 0.4 mb/d Pernis refinery, Europe’s largest, weighed on April runs, which fell m/m by 86 thousand b/d to 1.1 mb/d. Throughputs at the refinery were reported to have fallen to 65% of capacity according to the union. The strike lasted from 8 to 26 April.