Users licensed for the data service can access our US crude balances.
Extract from crude oil:
US crude stocks fell by a whopping 12.8 mb to below 470 mb, versus the five-year average draw of 2.5 mb. The draw was due to a combination of a jump in crude exports to 3.8 mb/d, a gradual return in refinery runs to 17.3 mb/d, a sharp fall in imports to 6.7 mb/d, and a fall in production to 12.1 mb/d. However, we believe the EIA is also likely correcting for some of inconsistent reporting earlier in the month, as we believe NGLs was being incorrectly classified as crude.
Cushing stocks fell by 1.7 mb following three weeks of builds. The WTI market is soon set to turn constructive as the new Permian pipelines start up, redirecting flows from Cushing to the USGC. We emphasised our constructive WTI outlook earlier this year, then moved to a bearish WTI-Brent view due in part to the summer Cushing builds, but more so due to Atlantic basin upstream maintenance and the contamination of the Druzhba pipeline, which led to clean North Sea cargoes being bid up. Now, the stage is once again set for a Q4 19 WTI spread rally.
Extract from oil products:
US gasoline stocks fell by 1 mb w/w to 232.2 mb, some 1.3 mb above the five-year average, led by a 1.3 mb decline in PADD 1 stocks. Gasoline imports into PADD 1 fell to 0.68 mb/d, but we expect a pick-up in imports as Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) appears poised to shutter its 0.35 mb/d Philadelphia refining complex. According to our calculations and adjusted for ethanol, PADD 1 needs around 1.17 mb/d of RBOB to balance in the summer months. Imports of RBOB usually amount to 0.20–0.25 mb/d at this time of the year, and the loss of PES will likely increase the import needs for RBOB-type material by 60–70 thousand b/d (out of a total gasoline loss of 0.13–0.15 mb/d). Unsurprisingly, the PES news has pushed valuation on Line 1 space to positive territory for the first time since 16 January. The arbitrage to ship from the USGC to the USEC is open for RBOB, CBOB and conventional 87 octane.