Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 14 Jun) – EA Final Estimate: +104 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 104 bcf as demand stagnated on moderate weather. Total demand dropped by 0.4 bcf/d w/w, led by a 0.5 bcf/d w/w fall in power burn to 30.6 bcf/d. High temperatures in the Pacific pushed regional injections down from 14 bcf to 8 bcf w/w, but national population-weighted CDDs were flat w/w. Overall LNG feedgas demand was also flat w/w, at 5.2 bcf/d. A 0.2 bcf/d w/w jump in takes at Corpus Christi T2 cancelled out a decline from Cameron LNG amid commissioning ebb and flow. Total supply was mixed, with a 0.3 bcf/d w/w decline in net Canadian imports offsetting similar-sized growth in Lower 48 output.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 21 Jun) – EA Estimate: +93 bcf
- We forecast the current week will narrowly end a streak of six consecutive triple-digit injections, with a 93 bcf build. Power burn is set to rebound by 0.7 bcf/d w/w on forecasts for a 15% w/w rise in population-weighted CDDs, with particularly intense heat in the Southeast. High temperatures above 90°F in Washington, DC and Charlotte this week will be 5-10°F above historical norms.
- Total Lower 48 production is on track to grow by 0.6 bcf/d w/w to 87.2 bcf/d, though basin-by-basin results paint a more mixed picture. Appalachia receipts are on pace to spike by 0.4 bcf/d w/w in a rare week without major maintenance in the region, while Rockies and Permian output are also set to rise, by 0.2 bcf/d w/w each. Dragging that growth down is a projected 0.2 bcf/d w/w decline in Gulf production due to continued work on the Destin Pipeline’s Pascagoula processing plant (due to end 26 June), as well as 0.1 bcf/d w/w declines each in the Bakken and Arkla basins.
- A force majeure on the Alliance Pipeline will limit total supply growth by cutting net imports from Canada by 0.6 bcf/d w/w. Alliance is fully shutting its Midwestern leg in Illinois and Iowa for four days of maintenance starting on 18 June. Imports from Canada via Alliance fell by 1.7 bcf/d d/d to zero on 18 June, with flows not expected to recover until the end of the maintenance.
- We project net exports to Mexico will climb by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. Part of the increase stems from the mechanical completion of the subsea Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline on 11 June.
- LNG feedgas demand is set to grow by 0.4 bcf/d w/w to 5.6 bcf/d. Flows to Corpus Christi hit an all-time high for the facility of 1.1 bcf/d on 18 June as Train 2 has begun production of LNG. Corpus Christi feedgas flows are on pace to rise by 0.2 bcf/d w/w to an average of 1.0 bcf/d. The remaining 0.1 bcf/d in w/w gains will come from Cameron LNG, which restarted taking feedgas on 15 June after nearly a week of receiving zero flows.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|