Users licensed for the data service can access our Norway oil production data.
Norwegian liquids production fell y/y in April by 0.14 mb/d to 1.73 mb/d (-46 thousand b/d m/m). The declines were led by crude (-0.13 mb/d y/y), taking the year-to-date production fall to 0.17 mb/d for liquids and 0.15 mb/d for crude, clearly posing further downside risk to our current 2019 liquids forecast of 0.1 mb/d of decline y/y. Equinor’s 0.14 mb/d Oseberg field was shut for 10 days due to a defective fire protection system and is likely to reduce Oseberg loadings in May, while the Statfjord complex was also closed for a few days following the detection of an oil sheen. The overall Norwegian May loading programme, which is supposed to rise m/m by 0.15 mb/d, could be revised lower. On the other hand, Wintershall’s Maria field restarted operations in May following disappointing production that led to its closure in February, while Equinor is due to start the 20 thousand b/d Trestakk field in May too. June production is set to decline sharply, when Goliat (pipeline pigging) and Ekofisk (routine maintenance) go offline, with the combined monthly loss estimated at 0.22 mb/d. Indeed, June loadings are scheduled to drop to a decade low of 0.75 mb/d (-0.45 mb/d m/m). Ekofisk and Statfjord will only load a single cargo.
Seaborne crude exports from Norway were stable m/m at 1.1 mb/d in April as lower bookings from the UK and Germany offset higher domestic requirements as well as higher flows to the Netherlands. Bookings of heavy-grade Grane to the US were stable m/m at 35 thousand b/d, a trend that we expect to continue in a tight heavy crude market. Ekofisk and Oseberg differentials have both stayed strong through the past few months with the recovery in gasoline cracks. And with contaminated Urals resulting in bids from Northwest European refiners for clean North Sea barrels as a substitute, demand for North Sea barrels will remain well bid.