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Brazilian March liquids output fell by 17 thousand b/d y/y to 2.65 mb/d, led by lower NGLs output (-20 thousand b/d). However, production recovered m/m by 72 thousand b/d, supported by the start of: pre-salt production at Buzios 3 (P-76) in February, which added 19 thousand b/d in March; and Lula North (P-67) in March, which produced 16 thousand b/d, according to our model. Berbigao/Sururu (P-68) is the remaining unit expected to start this year, although there is a risk of first oil spilling over into 2020, according to Galp. Our 2019 liquids y/y growth forecast stands at 0.22 mb/d, comprised of 0.18 mb/d from crude and 40 thousand b/d from biofuels and NGLs. Crude exports rose y/y by 0.21 mb/d to 1.15 mb/d in March, led by strong USGC demand. Weak supply and high exports helped Brazilian crude stocks draw by 23.7 mb in Q1 19.
Brazilian oil demand fell by 95 thousand b/d y/y to 2.28 mb/d in March. Distillate demand fell by 55 thousand b/d y/y to 0.92 mb/d, as demand ticked down with the Easter holidays beginning in March. Gasoline demand fell by 0.10 mb/d y/y to 0.63 mb/d, while ethanol demand rose by 76 thousand b/d to 0.36 mb/d due to competitive ethanol prices. Demand for distillate and gasoline was below their five-year averages by 60 thousand b/d and 0.11 mb/d respectively, while ethanol demand was 0.12 mb/d above the five-year average. Refinery runs grew by 84 thousand b/d y/y to 1.72 mb/d. Refiners remain in max distillate mode. Distillate production rose by 53 thousand b/d y/y to 0.72 mb/d and there was a 1.5 ppts y/y increase in distillate yields. Gasoline production increased by 16 thousand b/d y/y to 0.41 mb/d, despite yields slipping by 3.6 ppts y/y to 23.6%. Distillate imports fell y/y by 56 thousand b/d to 0.16 mb/d due to higher domestic production and softer demand, but we expect demand and imports to rebound in the coming months.