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Extract from crude oil:
Commercial liquids stocks surged again (+16.8 mb w/w), driven by a very large adjustment factor, with crude stocks higher by 4.7 mb as PADD 2 stocks grew by 3.3 mb to hit their highest since November 2017. USGC stocks also rose, this time by 2.9 mb, to 246 mb, the highest since July 2017. Runs continue to struggle to rise amid a plethora of unplanned outages, falling by 0.1 mb/d w/w to below 16.6 mb/d. In fact, even though offline CDU outages have eased from nearly 2 mb/d across February and March to an average of 1 mb/d across April and May, refinery runs are barely 0.1 mb/d higher so far in Q2 19 versus the Q1 19 average. At the same time, exports have come off, averaging just over 2.6 mb/d in Q2 19 so far (based on quarterly EIA data), versus 2.75 mb/d in Q1 19 (final Census Bureau data). And with production also starting to rise following a disappointing Q1 19, crude stocks have built by 27 mb since the start of April versus the five-year average build of 5.6 mb. With China shying away from US crudes following the ratcheting up in the US-China trade war and instead turning to the North Sea, until US runs rise materially, crude stocks may continue to rise in the near term across the US and at Cushing.
Extract from oil products:
US gasoline stocks increased by 3.7 mb w/w to 228.7 mb, closing the gap to 1.5 mb below the five-year average. Outside of the octane tightness, and PADD 2 in general, we view the gasoline market as fairly balanced in the US at the moment. Inventories in PADD 1 increased by 3.8 mb w/w, just 0.8 mb shy of the five-year average. As of 21 May, the arbitrage to ship RBOB and conventional 87 octane gasoline from the USGC to the USEC is workable on paper. However, with USGC CBOB at a 4.2 c/gal discount to offline values in Linden, NJ, the arbitrage for CBOB, which had briefly been open, is now shut. Meanwhile, trading space for Colonial prompt cycle 31 remains in negative territory, even with line space structure slightly backwardated with cycle 32 trading a 1.15 c/gal discount. PADD 5 stocks increased by 1.3 mb w/w to 27.7 mb, closing the gap to 1.0 mb versus the five-year average. USWC prices are still 25.8 c/ gal higher than the same week last year, as a series of planned and unplanned refinery outages crippled production of CARBOB, a regional specific blendstock. With summer demand expected to rise by 3.5% y/y for the US Memorial Day weekend, according to the AAA, this easing of prices could provide an early boost to the summer driving season.