US Department of Energy

Published at 17:13 15 May 2019 by

Users licensed for the data service can access our US crude balances.

Extract from crude oil:

US crude stocks rose by 5.4 mb to 472 mb versus a five-year average draw of 2.3 mb, extending the surplus to the five-year average to almost 16 mb. The builds came despite a surge in export volumes and refineries raising runs by 0.27 mb/d w/w to 16.7 mb/d (although unplanned outages continued to crimp utilisation rates, with current runs still below seasonal average levels), as imports rose by nearly 1 mb/d w/w to 7.6 mb/d, with PADD 3 arrivals at 2.2 mb/d. The adjustment factor swung violently again, from -0.9 mb/d in last week’s data to +0.8 mb/d in this week’s data, yet again putting into question the weekly statistics. With the Houston Ship Channel disrupted for much of this week following a barge collision, next week’s data will be volatile too.

Extract from oil products:

US gasoline stocks fell by 1.1 mb w/w to 225.0 mb, remaining 4.9 mb below the five-year average. Stocks in PADD 3 increased by 1.5 mb w/w to 83.0 mb, some 4.5 mb above the five-year average. As has been the case for a few weeks now, USGC gasoline prices were weak, keeping the arb to the USEC and midcontinent wide open. PADD 1 inventories fell by 1.1 mb w/w to 59.9 mb, as trading space for cycle 29 for the Colonial pipeline popped by 0.52 c/gal w/w. Line 1 average valuations for the past five sessions are the highest since 15 April. Demand to ship gasoline from the USGC to USEC has been picking up, as the arbitrage for CBOB, RBOB and conventional 87 octane gasoline is open. RBOB in particular has been wide open for several weeks now, with current premiums over the USGC hovering between 8.6-10.25 c/gal. However, it is only in the past week that USGC gasoline differentials drifted low enough to make shipping lower-octane products feasible. 9.0 RVP CBOB differentials in the USGC fell to their lowest in 11 weeks, pulling the inter-regional spread between offline CBOB in Linden and USGC to around 6.25 c/gal. PADD 2 inventories fell by 0.8 mb w/w to 49.5 mb, 4.9 mb lower y/y. In the Midcon, inter-regional spread remains at elevated levels keeping the arbitrage wide open on paper. We expect that the open arb to the midcontinent will begin to shut once turnarounds in PADD 2 are completed, but the arb to the USEC is expected to remain open, as demand swings higher seasonally.

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