Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 10 May) – EA Final Estimate: +106 bcf
- We project an injection of 106 bcf for this Thursday’s EIA storage report. Res-com demand dropped by 2.8 bcf/d w/w on a 30% w/w drop in gas-weighted HDDs. Power burn also fell w/w, by 0.3 bcf/d to 24.4 bcf/d, as moderate temperatures were prevalent over much of the West and Midwest US. Total supply did not help lift the injection rate, as Lower 48 production and net imports from Canada slipped by 0.1 bcf/d w/w each. Appalachia receipts ticked down by 0.1 bcf/d to account for the output losses, while heavy maintenance on the NGTL system’s Edson Mainline Loop from 6-11 May was responsible for the depressed cross-border trade with Canada.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 17 May) – EA Estimate: +113 bcf
- We forecast a 113 bcf injection in the current week, as total demand decreases by 1.0 bcf/d w/w. A sharp 0.8 bcf/d w/w decline in national power demand, led by a South Central region inundated by early week rainstorms, will quash gas-fired generation. Nuclear output is on pace to gain as expected (+2.5 GW w/w) on lower plant outages but will be partially offset by still-reduced hydro and coal output. However, with power load weak, there will not be room for incremental gas burn.
- One haven of moderate weather is the Pacific, as we project a 14 bcf injection in the current week, which would match the region’s five-year high. Temperatures in the 60s°F in the Pacific Northwest and the low 70s°F in Southern California, both in line with historical averages, are forecast to continue throughout the week. SoCalGas demand is set to hit a two-year low this week of just 2.0 bcf/d (-0.1 bcf/d w/w), helping facilitate higher injections.
- We forecast Lower 48 production will rise by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to 86.4 bcf/d. Appalachia receipts are on track to rebound by 0.2 bcf/d w/w, while the Rockies, Anadarko, and South Texas will also add 0.1 bcf/d each to the w/w gains.
- Production would likely be higher but for a forecast 0.1 bcf/d w/w drop in Haynesville output. The severe stormy weather early in the week in the South Central caused flooding and power outages depressed outflows from the basin.
- LNG feedgas is on track to grow by 0.2 bcf/d w/w. Sempra Energy announced first LNG production at Cameron LNG T1 this week, as its total gas intake edged above 0.2 bcf/d in anticipation of loading a first cargo in late May. Flows to Corpus Christi are also on pace to rise, by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. Feedgas growth would likely be higher, but stormy weather caused a barge to break loose in the Sabine Pass shipping channel on 10 May, delaying loadings at the terminal until it was cleared a day later.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|