Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 3 May) – EA Final Estimate: +86 bcf
- We forecast that Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 86 bcf, down by 37 bcf w/w on a 5.3 bcf/d w/w spike in total demand. A last blast of cold caused national gas-weighted HDDs to jump by 35% w/w, as low temperatures in the Midwest dropped to 10°F below normal and Chicago saw an unusually late snowstorm on 27 April. National res-com demand rose by 2.0 bcf/d w/w as a result. On the flip side, the South Central region dealt with highs of 90°F in Houston and Dallas some 10°F above the average, thus helping to push national power demand up by 1.6 bcf/d w/w. We forecast South Central storage will fall by 17 bcf w/w from its record 50 bcf injection.
- Stagnant production could not help boost the injection rate. Lower 48 output edged up just 0.1 bcf/d w/w as gains of 0.1 bcf/d w/w each in the Permian and Rockies cancelled out a similar-sized decline in the Gulf of Mexico.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 10 May) – EA Estimate: +109 bcf
- The week will see a return to triple-digit injections, with 109 bcf forecast to head into storage. A return to normal temperatures in the Midwest will see national res-com demand shrink by 3.3 bcf/d w/w as significant heating demand is eradicated until next winter. The drop in heating demand will more than offset a projected 0.2 bcf/d rise in power burn, as moderate weather endures in much of the country.
- We forecast total Lower 48 production will tick upwards by 0.2 bcf/d w/w. Anadarko, Arkla, and Appalachia receipts will be responsible for the growth, with each on track to rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. Permian output is projected to decline by 0.1 bcf/d w/w as volumes sent north out of the basin are constrained by a 0.1 bcf/d force majeure at NGPL’s Compressor Station 167 starting on 6 May.
- This week marks the heaviest of the scheduled summer maintenance on Canada’s NGTL system, as restrictions take up to 1.6 bcf/d in flows on the Edson Mainline Loop offline from 6-11 May. Firm transport into storage in Alberta is being limited by the work, with daily NGTL storage receipts flipping to a counter-seasonal withdrawal of 0.2 bcf/d on 6 May (-0.4 bcf/d d/d). We predict US net imports of Canadian gas will drop by 0.2 bcf/d w/w as a result of the maintenance.
- We project that LNG feedgas demand will grow by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to a record 5.6 bcf/d. Corpus Christi feedgas will rise by 0.2 bcf/d w/w on a full week of flows after work on the Sinton compressor station depressed its intake from 23-28 April. The other 0.1 bcf/d in w/w growth will come from Cameron, as it hit 0.25 bcf/d in daily intake on 6 May. Kpler ship-tracking data show the tanker Marvel Crane is en route to load the Sempra facility’s first export cargo later this month.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|