Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 26 Apr) – EA Final Estimate: +116 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show the third-largest injection of all-time at 116 bcf. Total demand shrank by 3.2 bcf/d w/w as gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs) fell by over 30% w/w, causing res-com demand to drop by 3.1 bcf/d w/w. Exports to Mexico also declined, by 0.2 bcf/d w/w, on maintenance that crippled flows south on NET Mexico between 16-21 April.
- Production growth also factored into the increased injection rate, as total Lower 48 output was up by 0.4 bcf/d w/w to 86.1 bcf/d. The largest gains came from the Haynesville, where receipts were up by 0.3 bcf/d w/w. Appalachia accounted for the other 0.1 bcf/d in w/w growth.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 3 May) – EA Estimate: +100 bcf
- The injection rate will fall in the current week, with just 100 bcf going into storage. Our balances point to a 1.9 bcf/d w/w rise in total demand as national GWHDDs are forecast to jump by 40% w/w on cold in the Midwest and Northeast. Chicago saw low temperatures close to freezing early in the week, 10°F lower than normal, and several inches of snow fell on 27 April. Res-com demand is on track to rise by 1.1 bcf/d w/w as a result.
- It is not just cold that will cause gains in total demand though. Population-weighted CDDs are also on pace to grow w/w, boosting power burn due to the ramp-up of cooling demand. Above-average temperatures are hovering over much of the South Central, with highs of 90°F in Houston and Dallas, 10°F higher than historical averages.
- Total production is on pace to ease by 0.3 bcf/d w/w. Receipts in the Gulf of Mexico were down by 0.1 bcf/d w/w after a similarly sized decline in flows on Transco’s Southeast Louisiana Lateral between 23-28 April. Bakken output is also on pace to decline by 0.1 bcf/d w/w.
- We project exports to Mexico will grow by 0.4 bcf/d w/w, to 4.9 bcf/d. The only impediment to exports south reaching their pre-NET Mexico maintenance baseline of 5.0 bcf/d is a force majeure on Tennessee Gas Pipeline’s Station 409 in south Texas, which began on 29 April and is restricting 0.2 bcf/d in flows. The timeline for repairing the pipe is currently unknown.
- We project LNG flows will be flat w/w at 5.1 bcf/d, even as flows to individual terminals are not static w/w. Cameron LNG intake is set to grow by 50 mmcf/d w/w after it received no gas between 23-25 April. It is on pace for 0.1 bcf/d of feedgas in the current week as it continues commissioning activities. Cameron LNG’s increase will be cancelled out by a decline in flows to Corpus Christi, as Sinton compressor station maintenance cut flows to the terminal by 0.5 bcf/d from 23-28 April.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|