Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 12 Apr) – EA Final Estimate: +93 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show 93 bcf was added to storage inventories in the reference week, more than triple last week’s implied injection of 29 bcf amid a 10.7 bcf/d w/w collapse in total demand. Res-com demand dropped by 7.8 bcf/d w/w as gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs) fell by 40% w/w. Industrial gas demand was also down due to moderate temperatures, by 0.9 bcf/d w/w, while a third train going offline for maintenance at Sabine Pass pushed LNG feedgas demand down by 0.6 bcf/d w/w. The strong injection was all the more impressive as Lower 48 production slumped by 0.8 bcf/d w/w. Separate maintenance in the Permian (on EPNG) and Gulf of Mexico (on Mississippi Canyon) lowered output by 0.3 bcf/d w/w in each basin.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 19 Apr) – EA Estimate: +89 bcf
- The injection rate will shrink to 89 bcf in the current week. GWHDDs are forecast to increase by 10% w/w, causing res-com demand to rise by 0.9 bcf/d w/w. This is largely offset by a 0.6 bcf/d w/w drop in power burn.
- The largest increase in demand will come from LNG feedgas, which is on pace to grow by 1.5 bcf/d w/w to 4.8 bcf/d. Trains 1 and 2 at Sabine Pass restarted on 11 April after being offline for three weeks of maintenance. Though one train at the facility remains down for seasonally scheduled work, Sabine’s intake will grow by 1.4 bcf/d w/w to 3.3 bcf/d. This is also the first week of significant flows to Cameron LNG. The terminal is on track to average 40 mmcf/d this week.
- We forecast net exports to Mexico will decline by 0.2 bcf/d w/w to 4.7 bcf/d. Maintenance at the Agua Dulce compressor station between 16–18 April will cut capacity on the NET Mexico pipeline by up to 0.8 bcf/d. The work gets more restrictive on 19–20 April, with capacity reductions of 1.3 bcf/d on NET Mexico, before a final day of 0.4 bcf/d of constraints on 21 April.
- We forecast total Lower 48 production will rise by 0.8 bcf/d w/w to 86.1 bcf/d. Appalachia is on track to lead the gains, growing by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to 30.6 bcf/d, its highest weekly average since late February. The Haynesville and East Texas basins will also edge up by 0.2 bcf/d w/w each, the latter erasing a 0.2 bcf/d w/w loss from the previous week.
- Production growth would be higher but for Rockies pipeline maintenance cutting the area’s output by 0.2 bcf/d w/w. Flows on Segment 200 of Rockies Express were cut from 1.0 bcf/d to zero between 16–18 April, limiting outflow from the region. Falling demand in the Rockies, due to low temperatures in Denver above 40°F this week that are 10°F above historical averages, will help avert higher production losses in the region.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|