Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 5 Apr) – EA Final Estimate: +41 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 41 bcf. Res-com demand fell by 2.3 bcf/d w/w amid a 5% w/w slide in gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs). This outpaced the w/w drop in total demand of 2.8 bcf/d, with gas power burn increasing 0.6 bcf/d w/w due to high nuclear outages. Production growth of 0.2 bcf/d w/w helped nudge the injection rate up slightly as well. Appalachia regained 0.4 bcf/d of production w/w that had been lost to freeze-offs in late February, though this was partially offset by a 0.2 bcf/d decline in the Permian as outages on El Paso Natural Gas’s Line 2000 and Transwestern limited the basin’s flows by a combined 0.2 bcf/d.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 12 Apr) – EA Estimate: +87 bcf
- We forecast the injection rate will shoot up to 87 bcf in the current week. Total demand is on pace to decline by 7.7 bcf/d w/w, mostly due to a 35% w/w fall in GWHDDs that will result in res-com demand dropping by 6.0 bcf/d w/w. Industrial gas use will decrease by 0.8 bcf/d w/w, also due to the moderate temperatures, as heating demand in the sector declines by the same amount.
- LNG feedgas demand is on pace to fall again, by 0.8 bcf/d w/w. Sabine Pass intake dropped by 0.6 bcf/d d/d on 4 April to 1.9 bcf/d, and flows to the facility are set to average 1.7 bcf/d in the current week (-0.7 bcf/d w/w). The drop is likely the result of Cheniere taking a third train offline for scheduled maintenance in April, though the company has not confirmed such an outage.
- Mexican exports will tick up by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 5.0 bcf/d. Meanwhile, LNG imports will continue to Altamira, with a cargo due to unload on 14 April in lieu of higher pipeline flows, indicating further growth in Mexican pipeline exports via the nearly complete 2.6 bcf/d Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline might not be imminent.
- The injection rate would be higher if it were not for a projected 0.7 bcf/d w/w drop in total Lower 48 production. The declines are concentrated in the South Central. East Texas and Arkla receipts are each on track to lose 0.3 bcf/d w/w. Gulf of Mexico output will see a 0.2 bcf/d w/w cut as a result of 0.3 bcf/d in maintenance on Mississippi Canyon’s Targa Venice processing plant on 8-10 April.
- We forecast a 0.3 bcf/d w/w downturn in net imports from Canada, which will further limit total supply. In the west, NGTL upgrade work on the Grande Prairie Mainline between 2-10 April is strangling 0.2 bcf/d in flows through the Port of Morgan border crossing in Montana, while mild temperatures in the US Northeast have limited imports through the weather-dependent Waddington border point in upstate New York by 0.1 bcf/d w/w.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|